Law enforcement agencies are often confronted about the racial makeup of their departments by members of the news media, civil rights activists, community groups, or local politicians. Often those who are criticizing police agencies compare the racial composition of the police department’s employees to the racial composition of the city or county that they police. When racial minority group members make up a larger percentage of the total community population that is represented on the police department, racial discrimination in hiring practices is often alleged.

However, making a simple comparison to U.S. Census statistics is severely flawed because (1) the hiring pool of eligible applicants does not stop at the city limits, and (2) not everyone within the city limits is eligible to apply to be a law enforcement officer. The Census data, for example, include children and senior citizens who are ineligible to be police officers. It also includes people who lack a high school education, individuals who cannot speak English fluently and persons who are not U.S. citizens. Furthermore, Census data includes persons who are not in the labor force due to profound disabilities or because of institutionalization in prisons, jails, or medical or psychiatric facilities.

A more sophisticated analysis of a jurisdiction’s Census data often reveals a very different picture of the racial demographics of those men and women who are actually eligible to serve as law enforcement officers. Census data already include information regarding the citizenship, English proficiency, education level, employability, veteran status, and age of the individuals surveyed. Even without the ability to exclude individuals from the Census data due to background issues such as a prior criminal history or illegal drug use, simply excluding individuals who are not U.S. citizens, lack basic English proficiency, lack the minimum education level, are institutionalized, or are too young or old to apply for a law enforcement job, can reveal striking changes in the racial composition of who is eligible to even apply for a law enforcement job.

In a 2015 article, the New York Times compared the racial demographics of several city law enforcement agencies with the basic Census demographics of those cities to reveal which had the greatest racial disparities. The article implied that these city police departments were, at the least, insensitive to the communities they policed and, at the worst, engaged in discriminatory hiring practices to prevent minority candidates from being hired. Moreover, their analyses neglected to consider that police officer recruitment often casts a wide net and potential candidates will reside not only within the city limits but also in the greater metropolitan area. These conclusions based on a cursory look at Census data is all too common and fails to take into account the discoverable factors that could account for what may appear to be inexplicable racial disparities in law enforcement agencies.

The material to follow will examine the statistical evidence of two major cities with large racial disparities in hiring—Baltimore and Houston—using a more common sense approach that actually analyzes the Census data.

Baltimore

As of 2016, Baltimore, Maryland had a population of 614,664 inhabitants, of which 63% were African-American. The police department is only 44% African-American. In other words, African-Americans are under-represented on the Baltimore police force by 19 percentage points, and Whites are over-represented on the force by 20 percentage points. This calculation, however, does not take into account the actual hiring pool for the Baltimore Police Department, which is comprised of those who meet the minimum requirements to even apply to become an officer.

According to the Baltimore Police Department’s website, applicants for the position of police officer must be (among other things) a U.S. citizen, be able to speak, read, and write in English, at least 20 years and 9 months old, possess a high school diploma or GED, pass a physical agility test, pass a medical screening, and pass a mental health screening. Although the department has no established maximum age limit, it is assumed no one age 65 or older (the U.S. Social Security age for retirement) would be applying to begin a career with this department. Table 1 below displays the racial composition of all 2016 inhabitants of Baltimore, and the racial composition of the Baltimore Police Department. It then displays the racial demographics of the Baltimore inhabitants in the metropolitan area (approximately a 30-mile radius from the city center) who meet the most basic requirements to apply to become Baltimore officers. These are people who are at least age 21 and less than age 65, have at least a high school diploma or GED, are U.S. citizens (including naturalized citizens), and speak English “well,” “very well,” or fluently. Individuals who reported they were not in the labor force (such as due to a disability, stay-at-home parenting, early retirement, or institutionalization) were also excluded.

 

Table 1. Baltimore, Maryland Estimates (2016)

	Total City Census Population	Baltimore P.D. Sworn Personnel	Eligible Census Metro Population
Number	614,664	2,952	1,126,246
African-American (non-Hispanic)	63.0%	44.0%	27.7%
White (non-Hispanic)	27.7%	48.0%	62.0%
Hispanic	4.8%	7.0%	3.5%
All Other Racial Groups	4.5%	1.0%	6.7%

Note: Census data estimates for metropolitan areas have a margin of error of approximately ± 1.9 percentage points    

 

When examining the data for the metro area (again, a 30-mile radius from the city center), only 41% of the individuals in the Census data for the metro are met these basic eligibility criteria. Table 1 reveals that even though 63% of the inhabitants of the city may be African-Americans, only 27.7% of those who met the minimum requirements to apply to be a police officer in the metropolitan area are African-Americans. This reveals that rather than being under-represented on the Baltimore police force by 19 percentage points, African-Americans are actually over-represented by over 15%. Regarding Whites, instead of being over-represented by 20 percentage points, they are actually under-represented by 14% in the pool of eligible candidates. Furthermore, Hispanics are employed by Baltimore at a rate twice as high as the proportion of Hispanics that make up those eligible to apply. In other words, when one considers those who are actually eligible to apply to be police officers in the Baltimore metropolitan area, the Baltimore Police Department appears to have done an admirable job of creating a police force that represents the racial proportions of their city.

Houston

Similar issues exist in Houston, Texas where, when compared to the total Census for the city, African-Americans are equally represented, but Hispanics are under-represented by 22 percentage points and Whites are over-represented on the police force by 27 percentage points. Once again it is important to consider who among the city’s inhabitants are actually eligible to even apply for the position of law enforcement officer. Among other things, the minimum requirements for application to the Houston Police Department include a high school education and either two years of college, or prior military service, or prior service as a law enforcement officer. Houston also requires applicants to be U.S. citizens, be able to read and write in English and be at least 20 years and six months old and no older than 44 years old. How do these basic requirements change the landscape of who in Houston is eligible to apply to be a police officer? Table 2 below reveals the results.

In order to determine the demographics of those eligible to apply to the Houston Police Department, the metro area Census data (30 mile radius from the city center) was filtered to find only the individuals who were between ages 21 and 44, were citizens, spoke English, and were either veterans or had at least 2 years of college. Persons who were not in the labor force (due to early retirement, stay-at-home parent, disability, or institutionalization) were also excluded. After filtering the Census data, only 9.9% of the individuals in the metro area met the basic requirements to apply to be a Houston police officer.

 

Table 2. Houston, Texas Estimates (2016)

	Total City Census Population	Houston P.D. Sworn Personnel	Eligible Census Metro Population
Number	2,303,482	5,295	662,094
African-American	22.8%	22.0%	19.5%
White (non-Hispanic)	25.1%	52.0%	50.4%
Hispanic	44.3%	22.0%	18.0%
All Other Racial Groups	7.8%	4.0%	12.1%

Note: Census data estimates for metropolitan areas have a margin of error of approximately ± 1.9 percentage points    

 

Table 2 reveals that when comparing those that met these basic application requirements with those actually employed by the Houston P.D., Hispanics were slightly over-represented on the police force by 4 percentage points, while African-Americans and Whites were relatively on par, and all other racial groups (primarily Asians) are under-represented by 8 percentage points. Again, rather than being vilified by the press and civil rights activists, Houston should be lauded for the racial diversity it has attained in the face of fewer qualified inhabitants.

Other Considerations

While these basic estimates reveal significant racial demographic differences between the total population of a community and those who meet some basic age, educational, and employability criteria, such analyses still do not account for a host of other legitimate screening criteria. Law enforcement recruits should be free of background issues such as a criminal record or poor driving record. A number of criminological studies have indicated that, compared to other racial groups, African-Americans are over-represented among those arrested and convicted of violent crimes—increasing the proportion of African-Americans ineligible to serve as law enforcement officers. One study found that, compared to drivers of other racial groups, African-American drivers were significantly more likely to have a suspended or revoked driver’s license or be driving without ever having obtained a license.   

Might there also be racial and ethnic differences in the proportions of individuals willing to pursue employment in law enforcement based on education and professional opportunities in the private sector? The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports reveals that as of 2016, 52% of Asian-American adults held employment in professional careers such as doctors, nurses, lawyers, accountants, engineers, scientists, university professors, and business executives. Only 40% of Whites, 30% of African-Americans, and 22% of Hispanics hold such careers. While only 12% of the U.S. population holds an advanced graduate degree, more than 20% of Asian-Americans hold such a degree. Is it realistic to expect large numbers of Asian-Americans to give up high-paying careers, for which they spent many years in college to earn, to take jobs as law enforcement officers with middle-class pay, shift work, and higher risks for danger?

Migration patterns also can have an influence. The racial or ethnic demographic composition can sometimes change very rapidly. For example, the police in Ferguson, Missouri were derided in the media because the department lacked many African-American officers. In 1990, the city population was only 25% African-American—one-quarter of the community. In 2000, African-Americans had grown to 52% of the community, and by 2010, the city population grew to 67% African-American. Ferguson is a small city of nearly 21,000 inhabitants and a police force of only about 45 officers. It would be unconstitutional and illegal to fire White officers, hired when the city was mostly White, once the city became majority African-American. While such a police force should take steps to increase the racial diversity of its new hires as the diversity of the city grows, 20-30 year careers prevent this transition from happening as fast as demographic shifts in the community. It would be equally inappropriate to begin laying off African-American officers in cities that become gentrified and see growths in White populations.   

In 2015, while speaking at the annual conference of the International Association of Chiefs of Police, President Barack Obama stated, “Too often, law enforcement gets scapegoated for the broader failures of our society and criminal justice system.” Law enforcement agencies should not be defamed or slandered for the societal circumstances that result in racial and ethnic differences in citizenship, education, age distribution, health, and career preferences.  

Why You Need an Analysis

When challenged by local politicians, concerned citizens, activist groups, or the media, municipal and law enforcement leaders will need their own analysis to provide responses and develop strategies that are based upon available data. Dolan Consulting Group is available to explore the demographic composition of those who meet the most minimum of standards required for application to your agency. If you’re interested in conducting a hiring pool analysis, then contact us to set up an appointment today.

 

 

References

1).  Ashkenas, J., & Park, H. (2015). The race gap in America’s police departments. New York Times, April 8, 2015. Retrieved from: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/09/03/us/the-race-gap-in-americas-police-departments.html 

2). U.S. Census Bureau Data (2016)

3). Ashkenas & Park (2015)

4).  U.S. Census Bureau Data (2016)

5). Ibid.

6). Ashkenas & Park (2015)

7). U.S. Census Bureau Data (2016)

8). Felson, R. B., Deane, G., & Armstrong, D. P. (2008). Do theories of crime or violence explain race differences in delinquency? Social Science Research, 37, 624-641; Felson, R. B., & Kreager, D. A. (2015). Group differences in delinquency: What is there to explain? Race and Justice, 5(1), 58-87; Walker, S., Spohn, C., & Delone, M. (2011). The Color of Justice: Race, Ethnicity, and Crime in America. New York, NY: Wadsworth.

9).  Regoeczi, W., & Kent, S. (2014). Race, poverty, and the traffic ticket cycle: Exploring the situational context of the application of police discretion. Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies and Management, 37(1), 190-205.

10).  U.S. Department of Labor (2017). Retrieved from: https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/race-and-ethnicity/2016/home.htm 

11).  Ryan, C. L., & Bauman, K. (2016). Educational attainment in the United States: 2015. Retrieved from: https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2016/demo/p20-578.pdf 

12). Korte, G. (2015). Police officers too often ‘scapegoated’ for problems in society, Obama says. USA Today, October 27, 2015. Retrieved from: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2015/10/27/police-officers-too-often-scapegoated-problems-society-obama-says/74662192/

We frequently see stories in the national news media about the public’s lack of trust in the police. When these stories move beyond anecdotal accounts, they often cite Gallup Poll data regarding public confidence in the police. For instance, much media attention was paid to the fact that public confidence in the police dipped to about 50% at the time of the unrest in Ferguson, Missouri in late 2014.

To be sure, a public confidence rate in which one out of every two Americans lacks confidence in the police is nothing to celebrate within our profession. Obviously, we wish for a higher confidence rate, like law enforcement had during the late 1960s when 7 out of 10 Americans had confidence in the police. But how does public confidence in law enforcement stack up against public confidence in other institutions, especially in recent years?

Graph 1 below shows the trend in Gallup Poll data on public confidence in the police from 1990 through the first half of 2018. This is a graph of the percentage of Americans surveyed by the Gallup Organization who indicated that they had “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in their local police, year by year. As one can see, since 1990, confidence in the police has fluctuated back and forth from about 50% to about 65%. When a sensational case of police use of force or corruption gets widespread national media attention, such as the Rodney King Incident (1991), the Rampart Scandal (1997), or the Ferguson Shooting (2014), public confidence in the police declines to near 50%. When national media attention lauds the police as heroes, such as in the aftermath of the 9/11 Attacks, or the mass assassinations of police officers during 2016, public confidence rises above 60%. Nevertheless, for the last 28 years, public confidence in the police bounced back and forth, but never fell below 50%, or rose above 65%.  

Graph 1. Gallup Poll Data on Public Confidence in the Police (1990-2018)

While we would all like to see these numbers go higher, Americans have an inherent mistrust of all government institutions. Numerous surveys that have compared American attitudes with those of other Western democracies, such as Great Britain, France, Germany, Spain, and Japan, consistently reveal that Americans have the greatest cynicism towards government. Americans have historically wanted a minimum of government interference in their lives and tend to be suspicious of government.

So how does public confidence in law enforcement stack up against public confidence in other government institutions? Law enforcement in the U.S. is overwhelmingly a local government function, with 90% of law enforcement officers employed at the municipal or county level. The only other local government institution that the Gallup Poll has consistently included within its public confidence surveys has been public education. So how does public confidence in law enforcement compare to public confidence in public education since 1990?

Graph 2 compared the trend in public confidence in the police, with public confidence in public education, from 1990 through the first half of 2018. As this graph reveals, public confidence in public education has been below 50% since before 1990. Like law enforcement, public confidence in public education was in the 70% range during the late 1960s, but began to decline after 1973, and by 1990 had dropped below 50%.

Graph 2. Gallup Poll Data on Public Confidence in Police and Public Education (1990-2018)

While the national news media has remained relatively silent on these poll results, public confidence in public education has averaged 15 to 20 percentage points lower than that of public confidence in the police. This gap has also widened over time to the point where, for the first half of 2018, public confidence in public education is 36 percentage points lower than public confidence in the police. While public confidence in the police over the last 28 years has fluctuated between two points (50% and 65%), public confidence in public education has been much lower and continues a slow decline.

What about other government institutions? Graph 3 below reveals the levels of public confidence in the police alongside the levels of public confidence in Congress, the President, and the Supreme Court. As this graph reveals, since 1990, public confidence in law enforcement has remained much higher than the level of public confidence in the three pillars of the federal government. Even at its worst, public confidence in the police has been 12 percentage points higher than public confidence in the Supreme Court or the President at their best. The highest public confidence score Congress has received since 1990 is still 35 percentage points lower than the lowest public confidence score recorded for the police. Depending on the candidates they would like to bolster or tear down, the national news media outlets devote some attention to these federal government public confidence scores, but never in comparison to how much higher public confidence is in the police.

Graph 3. Gallup Poll Public Confidence in Police and Federal Government (1990-2018)

Undoubtedly the law enforcement professionals should continue to work hard to improve the public image of the police. Nevertheless, compared to other government institutions at the local and national level, it appears that the law enforcement profession is doing pretty well in terms of public confidence.

So why would the media focus so much attention on the “low” level of public confidence in the police? Might it be an effort to create a sensational story as a way to increase viewer ratings? This is likely, as there are a number of former mainstream media journalists who claim this sort of business strategy is used routinely. Television news and newspaper editors are constantly pressuring their field reporters to find the next “big scoop,” or to sensationalize boring, mundane stories. Law enforcement has clearly received more than its fair share of this sensationalizing over the last few years.

Regardless of the cause of the media’s focus on the perceived lack of confidence in the police, there is an irony in this focus—the level of confidence in the media itself is dismally low among the American people. Our final graph, Graph 4, compares the Gallup Poll data on public confidence in the police, with Gallup Poll data on public confidence in the television news media. In 1990 and 1991, law enforcement and the television news media had similar levels of public confidence – between 55% and 60%. After that, public confidence in the television news media took a major nose dive, dropping far below public confidence in the police, even in the midst of the Rodney King trial and riots that hurt law enforcement’s public image. Public confidence in television news media fell from 58% in 1990, to 33% in 1995. After its initial plummet in the early 1990s, public confidence in the television news media has never recovered.

Graph 4. Gallup Poll Public Confidence in Police and Television News (1990-2018)     

After 1995, public confidence in television news has slowly declined further. Over the last 10 years, public confidence in the television news media has fluctuated between 20 and 28% – about 22 to 30 percentage points lower than the lowest recorded level of public confidence in the police. According to the Pew Research Institute, since 1990, newspaper readership (including online editions of newspapers) has been cut in half, declining by 51%. Network television news viewership has also declined by 43% since 1990.

In summary, public confidence in the police has remained fairly stable over the last 28 years, fluctuating between 50 and 65% from year to year. Nevertheless, confidence in the police has remained much higher than public confidence in other institutions with the isolated exceptions of the military and small business. Finally, for almost three decades, public confidence in the television news media (the prominent voice in public discourse decrying lack of public trust in the police) has been falling and is actually substantially lower than the level of public confidence in law enforcement.

These statistics demonstrate something fundamentally important: law enforcement officers are members of one of the most trusted institutions in our country—more than our news media, our public schools or our elected political bodies. There is a clear majority of the public that supports you and trusts in your work. That confidence is something to be protected through the professional execution of your duties as officers.

 

 

References

1 See, for example: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/aug/26/public-trust-police- low-poll-finds/ 2 Johnson, R. R. (2016). Why Officer Demeanor Matters. Raleigh, NC: Dolan Consulting Group. 3 Mauk, D., & Oakland, J. (2008). American Civilization: An Introduction. New York, Routledge. 4 Reaves, B. A. (2011). Census of State and Local Law Enforcement Agencies, 2008. Washington, DC: Bureau of Justice Statistics. 5 Attkisson, S. (2014). Stonewalled. New York, NY: Harper; Boynton, R. S. (2005). The New New Journalism: Conversations with America’s Best Nonfiction Writers on Their Craft. New York, NY: Vintage; Hersh, S. M. (2018). Reporter: A Memoir. New York, NY: Knopf. 6 Clarke, D. A., & Hannity, S. (2017). Cop Under Fire: Moving Beyond Hashtags of Race, Crime and Politics for a Better America. New York, NY: Worthy Publishing; Mac Donald, H. (2016). The War on Cops: How the New Attack on Law and Order Makes Everyone Less Safe. New York, NY: Encounter Books. 7 Pew Research Institute (2018): http://www.journalism.org/fact-sheet/newspapers/ 8 Engel, P. (2014, January 10). Most Americans don’t recognize America’s top evening news anchor. Business Insider. Downloaded at: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/most-americans- dont-recognize-americas-top-evening-news-anchor-2014-1