In recent months there has been a great deal of discussion about violent crime rates. This discussion has revolved around whether violent crime is declining year over year and if the high crime rates in certain major cities continue to demand greater police actions. As we consider these issues as a society, and within the law enforcement profession, we need to make sure that we do not forget the importance of addressing non-violent offenses—particularly, property crimes and public disorder crimes.

As we will discuss in this article, non-violent crime has a major impact on the public’s sense of safety and public attitudes toward the police. Many non-violent crimes also impact the local economy by affecting employment opportunities, tourism, housing prices, and much else. The available evidence clearly demonstrates that continuing to engage in enforcement efforts against property crimes and public order crimes, as well as enforcing local ordinances, can help reduce fear of crime, improve confidence in the police, and improve local economic conditions.

 

Non-Violent Crime and Fear of Crime

Ever since the 1980s, criminologists and social psychologists have realized that signs of social decay raise public fears about crime.[1] These researchers have revealed that non-violent public order crimes like loitering, vagrancy, and trespassing, do more to increase citizen fear of crime than do violent crime rates. This may seem counterintuitive until you stop and think about it. When you drive around any major city, you intuitively perceive that certain parts of the city are less safe than other parts based on signs of neighborhood decay, not by actually witnessing violent crimes. Some neighborhoods have mowed lawns, clean streets, occupied residences, families out walking, and the neighborhood looks cared for by the residents. Other neighborhoods are littered with graffiti, trash, abandoned or damaged cars, uncut lawns, and there are many abandoned houses and businesses. Even without witnessing a crime in progress, we instinctively feel that the first neighborhood is safer than the second neighborhood.

Many of these visible signs of urban decay are violations of criminal statutes and city ordinances that can be enforced by the police. Littering is a crime, as is making graffiti. Vehicle registration laws do not allow vehicles to be on public roadways without a valid registration, thus permitting the removal of abandoned vehicles. Local ordinances govern the maintenance of properties, allowing the city to fine property owners who do not maintain their properties to standard. In extreme cases, such as abandoned properties, the city can even seize the properties.[2]

Public responses to high levels of property crime further exacerbate the situation. Bars on windows, barbed-wire fences, an abundance of security cameras, and even low-cost items in stores under lock and key are all signs that visually convey that the area is plagued by crime. The enforcement of property crime laws can help remove these property-crime-related signs of social decay. We should not overlook the fact that enforcing property crime and order-maintenance laws contributes to improved quality of life for citizens and reductions in fear of crime.

It must also be remembered that, like violent crimes, property crime causes trauma to its victims. Much research has demonstrated that victims of thefts and burglaries feel violated, unsafe, and suffer increased levels of depression. Property crime victimization increases mistrust among neighbors and decreases social cohesion within a neighborhood.[3] These facts further prove that enforcing property crime laws and appropriately dealing with property offenders can reduce citizen fears and improve citizen quality of life. 

 

Fear of Crime and Satisfaction with the Police

For the last decade, the law enforcement profession has struggled to maintain citizen support for the police. The “defund the police” movement, decreasing public opinion poll survey results, political attacks by activists, the news media, and politicians have made it difficult for law enforcement agencies to garner the public support they need and deserve.[4] The law enforcement profession needs all the help it can get to counter these influences and increase public support for the police. Many social science research studies have revealed a direct correlation between citizen fear of crime and citizen satisfaction with the police.[5] When fear of crime is high, citizen satisfaction with the police tends to be low, and vice versa. Because fear of crime is linked to perceptions of neighborhood social decay, the more the police can do to clean up the appearance of neighborhoods and reduce non-violent crimes, the more the police can improve citizen satisfaction and increase support for the police within those neighborhoods.

We should also always remember that within even the most crime-ridden neighborhoods in every city, a multitude of law-abiding citizens live between the crime hot spot addresses on the map. These residents live in fear and lack the financial ability to flee this environment. Over the last half century, criminologists have demonstrated that the overwhelming majority of crimes and calls for police services (about 80%) occur at a very small proportion of addresses (about 5%).[6] Further research has revealed that these hot spot concentrations of crime and disorder are commonly frequented by the small number of individuals that generate the vast majority of crime.[7] In other words, the criminal element in any community is a relatively small, but very active, group of individuals, making it appear as though a whole neighborhood is crime-infested. We need to keep, and improve, support for the police among the individuals not involved in crime by addressing both violent and non-violent crime within these neighborhoods.   

 

Non-Violent Crime and the Local Economy, Employment, and Housing

Criminologists, sociologists, and economists have documented the “doom loop” effects of neighborhood social decay.[8] As we have mentioned, visible signs of neighborhood decay—trash, graffiti, bars on windows, abandoned cars and abandoned buildings—intuitively communicate that a neighborhood might be unsafe. When people believe the neighborhood is unsafe, the vast majority of law-abiding residents in the neighborhood begin to restrict their behavior. They keep their doors locked more often, do not go outside as often, and interact less with their neighbors. Residents who can afford to do so move elsewhere and abandon the neighborhood altogether. At the same time, people from outside the decaying neighborhood are less likely to come to the neighborhood to shop at its businesses, but others from outside the neighborhood may come looking for drugs or prostitutes. Tired of experiencing financial losses due to theft, vandalism, and a dwindling customer base from outside the neighborhood, the businesses that can afford to do so also leave. These businesses will relocate to neighborhoods that appear safer and are more likely to attract paying customers.

As law-abiding citizens and businesses leave the neighborhood, the area experiences further decay. Realizing that people will come to the neighborhood looking for drugs, prostitutes, or to buy stolen property, more of the criminal element will move in to service these customers of crime. New residents or outside property speculators will also enter the neighborhood with a tolerance for its current poor conditions. They cannot afford better locations and have no memory of when the neighborhood was cleaner, safer, and more orderly. Therefore, the new residents and landlords have the expectation that trash, graffiti, unkept landscaping, and run-down buildings are permitted in this neighborhood. These expectations make them uninterested in improving the community. The flight of businesses not only removes access to stores for the remaining residents, but also removes many job opportunities. This forces residents to travel greater distances to shop and work. Some of those unable or unwilling to travel these distances, may turn to crime as an illegitimate way of obtaining income and goods.[9]

As crime and decay increases, more people and businesses move out of the neighborhood, resulting in plummeting property rates. Seeing their property values declining quickly, even more people and business owners flee to better neighborhoods. This cycle continues to repeat as the neighborhood spirals down in a doom loop of poverty, unemployment, and crime. Remember where it started—with the physical signs of neighborhood social decay that are non-violent crimes and nuisance ordinance violations. By continuing to enforce non-violent crimes and community standards ordinances, law enforcement agencies can prevent or stop this doom loop spiral.

 

Perceptions of Inequality

A constant contributor to hostility toward the police is the accusation that the police are biased against the poor and racial/ethnic minority groups. Most law enforcement officers resent such accusations and are diligent to be fair and impartial with everyone they contact. Nevertheless, the neighborhoods caught in the doom loop downward spiral described above are overwhelmingly poor, and disproportionately populated by members of racial/ethnic minority groups. Middle-class and upper-class neighborhood residents rarely tolerate a lowering of their community standards. They pick up the trash in their yards and streets. They contact the city or their homeowners’ association (HOA) to complain if this becomes a growing problem. They call the police and demand action when neighbors block the street, park an inoperable vehicle on the street, fail to cut their grass, or play music too loudly. They report graffiti or other vandalism to the police and immediately repair the damage.

Middle-class and upper-class residents do these things because they have the financial means to do so, feel peer-pressure from their neighbors and HOA, and feel that their neighbors share these values. Many people in poorer neighborhoods—the many law-abiding people trapped living between the crime hot spots—hold the same values as middle-class and upper-class residents. However, these people in poorer neighborhoods have fewer resources to keep repairing repeated vandalism, lack an HOA for support, and may know fewer of their neighbors. They assume few neighbors share their values. They do not want to put themselves in danger and be seen as “snitches” by the criminal element in their neighborhood, so they rarely proactively reach out to the police or other city agencies for help. Many want the help of law enforcement, but because of the conditions of where they live, they are reluctant to ask for the help they need.[10]

As the poor neighborhood spirals down in decay, it is easy for the law-abiding residents to believe that the reason their neighborhood conditions do not receive the same police or city attention as they do in suburban neighborhoods is due to discrimination. They may perceive that the reason the police do not aggressively address the non-violent crime issues in their neighborhood is due to their being poor, or members of a racial/ethnic minority group.[11] This further erodes their confidence in the police and increases their fears about living in the neighborhood. Enforcing non-violent crime laws on those few individuals most contributing to crime in the neighborhood can help dissuade these beliefs.

 

Conclusion

Recently, much attention has been focused on violent crime and the need to reduce it. This, in itself, is good. However, we want to remind our readers that non-violent crime and disorder can be equally devastating for communities. Non-violent crime and disorder do more than violent crime to increase fear of crime, lower citizen satisfaction with the police, and perpetuate perceptions about inequality. Law enforcement agencies should work tirelessly to reduce violent crime, but should never forget that non-violent crime and social disorder are equally troublesome issues. 

 

 

 

 

 

References

[1] Wesley G. Skogan, Disorder and Decline: Crime and the Spiral of Decay in American Neighborhoods (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1992); Ralph B. Taylor, Sally Ann Shumaker, and Stephen D. Gottfredson. “Neighborhood-Level Links between Physical Features and Local Sentiments: Deterioration, Fear of Crime, and Confidence.” Journal of Architectural and Planning Research 2, no. 4 (1985), 261-275; James Q. Wilson, George L. Kelling. “Broken Windows.” The Atlantic Monthly, 249, no. 3 (1983), 29-38; Phillip G. Zimbardo, “The Human Choice: Individuation, Reason, and Order Versus Deindividuation, Impulse, and Chaos.” In William Arnold, David Levine, and Dalbir Bindra (eds.) Nebraska Symposium on Motivation, 237-307 (Lincoln, NE: University of Nebraska Press, 1969).

[2] Michael Flynn and Eleanor Ohayon. “Effective Enforcement of Nuisance Abatement Laws.” Nova Law Review 48 (2023): 38-59; Lawrence W. Sherman, Denise C. Gottfredson, Doris L. MacKenzie, John Eck, Peter Reuter, and Shawn D. Bushway. Preventing Crime: What Works, What Doesn’t, What’s Promising. Research in Brief (Washington, DC: National Institute of Justice, 1998).

[3] Man Cheung Chung, Jacqui Stedmon, Rachel Hall, Zoe Marks, Kate Thornhill, and Rebecca Mehrshahi. “Posttraumatic Stress Reactions Following Burglary: The Role of Coping and Personality.” Traumatology: An International Journal 20, no. 2 (2014): 65; Dorothy Deka. “Psychological Factors in Property Crimes: Theories, Traits, and Treatment.” In Victimology: A Comprehensive Approach to Forensic, Psychosocial and Legal Perspectives, pp. 283-311 (New York: Springer International Publishing, 2022); Maarten Kunst and Dante Hoek. “Psychological Distress Among Domestic Burglary Victims: A Systematic Review of Possible Risk and Protective Factors.” Trauma, Violence, & Abuse 25, no. 1 (2024): 430-447; Freya O’Brien and Amy Burrell. “The Impact of Property Crime on Victims.” In Property Crime, pp. 59-73 (London: Routledge, 2020).

[4] Heather Mac Donald. The War on Cops: How the New Attack on Law and Order Makes Everyone Less Safe (New York: Encounter Books, 2017).

[5] Erik Alda, Richard R. Bennett, and Melissa S. Morabito. “Confidence in the Police and the Fear of Crime in the Developing World.” Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management 40, no. 2 (2017): 366-379; Trevor Bennett. “Confidence in the Police as a Mediating Factor in the Fear of Crime.” International Review of Victimology 3, no. 3 (1994): 179-194; Mengyan Dai and Richard R. Johnson. “Is Neighborhood Context a Confounder? Exploring the Effects of Citizen Race and Neighborhood Context on Satisfaction with the Police.” Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management 32, no. 4 (2009): 595-612; Jonathan Jackson, Ben Bradford, Katrin Hohl, and Stephen Farrall. “Does the Fear of Crime Erode Public Confidence in Policing?” Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice 3, no. 1 (2009): 100-111; Richard R. Johnson. Reducing Fear of Crime and Increasing Citizen Support for Police (Raleigh, NC: Dolan Consulting Group, 2016); Steven Lockey, Les Graham, Tom Redman, Yuyan Zheng, Gillian Routledge, and Laura Purves. “The Impact of a Local Community Engagement Intervention on Residents’ Fear of Crime and Perceptions of the Police.” International Journal of Police Science & Management 21, no. 3 (2019): 168-180; Michael D. Reisig and Roger B. Parks. “Neighborhood Context, Police Behavior and Satisfaction with Police.” Justice Research and Policy 5, no. 1 (2003): 37-65; Renauer, Brian C. “Reducing Fear of Crime: Citizen, Police, or Government Responsibility?” Police Quarterly 10, no. 1 (2007): 41-62.

[6] Patricia L. Brantingham and Paul J. Brantingham. “A Theoretical Model of Crime Hot Spot Generation.” Studies on Crime and Crime Prevention 8 (1999), 7–26; Isaac T. Van Patten, Jennifer McKeldin-Coner, and Deana Cox. “A Microspatial Analysis of Robbery: Prospective Hot Spotting in a Small City.” Crime Mapping: A Journal of Research and Practice 1, no. 1 (2009): 7-32; Lawrence W. Sherman, Patrick R. Gartin, and Michael E. Buerger. “Hot Spots of Predatory Crime: Routine Activities and the Criminology of Place.” Criminology 27, no. 1 (1989): 27-56.

[7] Graham Farrell. “Situational Crime Prevention and its Discontents: Rational Choice and Harm Reduction Versus Cultural Criminology.” In Crime Opportunity Theories, pp. 343-369 (London: Routledge, 2017); Graham Farrell, Ken Clark, Dan Ellingworth, and Ken Pease. “Of Targets and Supertargets: A Routine Activity Theory of High Crime Areas.” Internet Journal of Criminology (2005), 1-25; Lawrence W. Sherman, Patrick R. Gartin, and Michael E. Buerger. “Hot Spots of Predatory Crime: Routine Activities and the Criminology of Place.” Criminology 27, no. 1 (1989), 27-56.

[8] Alexander Alias, Z. Zyed, and W. W. Chai. “Revitalising critical components of urban decay features.” Journal of Building Performance 7, no. 1 (2016), 1-19; Alexander Cuthbert. “Urban Decay and Regeneration: Context and Issues.” Journal of Urban Design 22, no. 2 (2017): 140-143.Wesley G. Skogan, Disorder and Decline: Crime and the Spiral of Decay in American Neighborhoods (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1992); James Q. Wilson, George L. Kelling. “Broken Windows.” The Atlantic Monthly, 249, no. 3 (1983), 29-38.

[9] Elijah Anderson. Streetwise: Race, Class, and Change in an Urban Community (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2013); Bowen Paulle. “Culture and Ghetto Related Behavior.” Sociologie 1, no. 4 (2005), 357-381; Wesley G. Skogan, Disorder and Decline: Crime and the Spiral of Decay in American Neighborhoods (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1992); Sam B. Warner Jr. and Colin B. Burke. “Cultural Change and the Ghetto.” Journal of Contemporary History 4, no. 4 (1969): 173-187; James Q. Wilson, George L. Kelling. “Broken Windows.” The Atlantic Monthly, 249, no. 3 (1983), 29-38. James Q. Wilson, George L. Kelling. “Broken Windows.” The Atlantic Monthly, 249, no. 3 (1983), 29-38.

[10] Elijah Anderson. Streetwise: Race, Class, and Change in an Urban Community (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2013).

[11] Elijah Anderson. Streetwise: Race, Class, and Change in an Urban Community (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2013); Wesley G. Skogan, Disorder and Decline: Crime and the Spiral of Decay in American Neighborhoods (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1992).

Authors: Matt Dolan, J.D. and Richard R. Johnson, Ph.D.

In our last article, Is Violent Crime ACTUALLY Coming Down in 2025?, we addressed plausible explanations for why several jurisdictions in the U.S. have reported declines in violent crime over the last two to three years. These news stories tout the declines in violent crime (but not necessarily other types of crimes) in large and small cities from coast to coast.[1] While many mayors have credited their local public safety initiatives for these declines, we offered several potential explanations that seem to be more plausible, including the impact, in an aging U.S. population, of the decrease in the number of young men in the population on violent crime rates.

The declining U.S. birth rate, which has plummeted below the replacement level (enough births to “replace” the two parents) since 2008, means we are likely entering an era with an ever-smaller population of people in the age category most prone to engage in violent crime. The people not born in 2008 would be turning 17 years old in 2025. Fewer and fewer teens and twenty-somethings in the population means fewer and fewer persons most statistically likely to be potential perpetrators or victims of violent crime.

However, there is another important and historic demographic shift that has occurred in the last few years that might also be contributing to the decline in violent crime—the unprecedented disengagement of millions of young men from society, or what has been described as the male sedation hypothesis.[2] The male sedation hypothesis suggests that modern society passively sedates young men through comfort, distraction, and low expectations. This phenomenon is perhaps most clearly seen in the millions of working age men who are neither employed nor pursuing educational attainment—at levels unseen since at least the tail end of the Great Depression.[3] As we will explain, this new social phenomenon may reduce the likelihood of young men engaging in violent behavior, contributing to new problems that will require law enforcement involvement, and re-shaping how we traditionally think of crime and disorder in our communities.

 

Young Men and Risky Behavior

For many decades, the fields of criminology and social psychology have confirmed what cultures throughout history have recognized: that adolescent and early-adulthood men are the segment of the population most engaged in risky behaviors. Sometimes these risky behaviors are socially discouraged, such as substance abuse, violence, property crime, sexual promiscuity, and reckless driving. This is why most criminal offenders are males between the ages of 13 and 40. Other risky behaviors have traditionally been encouraged by society, such as risky and physically demanding sports, military service, hazardous occupations (including the law enforcement occupation), and physically defending one’s family and friends.[4]

Social psychologists and sociologists have argued that risky male behavior is driven by conscious and unconscious desires to achieve higher status within one’s society and among one’s peers. In a stable society, properly sanctioned risky behavior is rewarded with money, status, or admiration.[5] Oil rig workers without any education beyond high school, for example, have a more dangerous job than most, and are therefore paid more money than those employed in restaurants or hospitality with similar educational attainment. Combat veterans are widely admired for their contributions to American life, which entailed uniquely dangerous endeavors. Law enforcement officers and firefighters who are injured in the line of duty are generally the subjects of public outpourings of support and admiration.

Education and entrepreneurship are also socially approved risky paths to social status. Attending college requires foregoing other activities in life as one devotes large amounts of time and money to earning a college degree, with the hope that this education will pay off in social status and income. The harder and longer the educational route—such as pursuing a doctorate in medicine or engineering—the less likely the student is to successfully complete the education and the greater the likely payoff in income and social status in the end, if successful. The same is true for entrepreneurship. Starting a business is extremely risky, and most businesses fail after just a few years. But most of society celebrates people who become successful business owners, and the monetary benefits are obvious.[6] 

In unstable societies—such as neighborhoods plagued by unemployment, poverty, crime, substance abuse, and failing schools—both legitimate and illegitimate ways exist for young men to earn status. Many young men have historically turned to military service in order to earn status, respect, and the income that comes with it as a way out of such neighborhoods.

Others, however, have historically turned to deviant ways to earn status, such as selling drugs, committing other crimes to earn money, or using violence to earn the fear and respect of others in their communities. It is these deviant routes to gaining and maintaining status in disadvantaged neighborhoods that drives much of the crime—especially violent crime—in these neighborhoods. It explains why one young man is willing to seriously harm another man for what would appear to be a minor insult. For those with limited means to gain higher social status, the minor insult is a serious matter.[7]

Social scientists believe young men innately pursue social status to attract the best opportunities to find a mate, and to provide safety and security for themselves and the family they hope to have with this mate.[8] However, several social psychologists have recently noted changes in this drive for social status among young men in the U.S. and many other Western nations. These social scientists argue that recent technological and social changes—leading to rampant use of pornography, online gaming, and the use of prescription drugs, alcohol, and marijuana—have sedated the biological and social drive to achieve social status among many young men.    

 

The Male Sedation Hypothesis

The term male sedation hypothesis was coined by social psychologists William Costello and David Buss.[9] This hypothesis suggests that modern technology, particularly constant engagement with social media, pornography, and video games, is pacifying young men by providing a sense of fulfillment and reducing their drive for real-world social interactions. Costello and Buss argue that online virtual worlds offer simulated experiences that can mimic real-life social and sexual experiences, reducing the motivational drive for real-world experiences.

Young men who always have their phones with them are constantly bombarded with entertainment through social media platforms, especially TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube. Research has revealed that these platforms, and their constant stream of new content, can be addictive. These platforms can trigger the release of dopamine, a hormone that plays a crucial role in the brain’s reward system, motivation, and motor control. Dopamine is released when we experience pleasure or anticipate a reward, reinforcing the behaviors that led to that feeling. In fact, when people who are highly involved with social media experience periods without access to social media, they can experience physical symptoms of withdrawal. Phones and social media also tend to distract individuals from their real-life commitments, such as school, work, and family, leading to problems in these areas as well.[10]  

Through first-person roleplay video games, young men can engage in (and excel at) virtual versions of masculine risky behaviors without the actual risk of injury, death, or arrest. Through online player communities, young men can socially connect with peers and build friendship bonds with like-minded young men from across the nation and the world. Research has revealed that these virtual games can trigger dopamine, and the realism of these games can often produce an adrenaline release, causing the games to satisfy some of the young men’s biological drives toward risky behavior. These games meet the needs of many young men to experience excitement, competition, social status, and like-minded friendship groups. As a result, young men immersed in these virtual worlds are less likely to pursue risky and challenging experiences in real life.[11]

Another factor at work in the male sedation hypothesis is the accessibility of online pornography—from viewing photos and videos of sexual content to real-time online connections through live sex chat or OnlyFans. For many young men, especially those who might be less successful in the real dating world, these virtual experiences seem to fulfill their sexual desires without having to put in the effort to earn social status to attract a mate. They offer a form of sexual gratification without having to navigate the complicated human aspects of cultivating a romantic relationship. As a result, these young men are becoming less interested in pursuing relationships, especially long-term relationships, marriage, and fathering in the real world.[12]

In other words, social media apps and online communities provide young men with substitutes for real-world aspects of masculinity. The virtual world provides young men with opportunities to experience risky behavior, adrenaline-producing excitement, friendship with like-minded peers, social status, and sex, all from the safety of one’s bedroom. By providing a minimum level of distraction and fulfillment, these virtual experiences reduce the drive of young men to pursue real-world goals related to social status and dating. Many young men appear to become less motivated to pursue formal education, careers, friends in their own communities, and romantic relationships that will lead to marriage and families.[13]

These conditions are exacerbated further by a lowering of social expectations for young men and a rise in substance use. Since the Great Recession of 2008, there has been a surge in parents and grandparents willing to provide their adult offspring with housing, food, and spending money well into their thirties and beyond. Males now make up a minority of college students in the U.S., and the percentage of working-age men who are unemployed, partially employed, or on disability status has skyrocketed. The marriage rate has been in steep decline since 2008, and so has the birth rate.

In other words, each year, a greater proportion of young American men are not in the workforce, not pursuing higher education, not pursuing relationships, and not raising families. It seems to many who have studied these phenomena that men are receiving just enough entertainment, fulfillment, and economic sustainment from online experiences, the support of their families, and the social welfare safety net to avoid traditional pursuits—whether those pursuits are beneficial or detrimental to society. When faced with the choice between this safe and comfortable existence, or the hard work and risks of pursuing social status in the real world, many young men are choosing the more comfortable path.[14]

Much research has revealed that increased access to recreational and prescription drugs is also helping keep young men blissfully sedated. Young men who spend large amounts of time online, are unemployed or only employed part-time, and have few relationships with others, are at elevated risk for severe depression. When the depressing reality sinks in with these young men that they are wasting their lives and have accomplished little in the real world, many turn to alcohol and drugs to self-medicate. When that no longer proves effective, a growing number are turning to suicide.[15] 

 

What Does This Have to Do with the Police?

While this is all extremely concerning for society in general, what does any of this have to do with the police? There are several ways we see this phenomenon impacting demand for police services.

First, male sedation seems to be resulting in lower violent crime rates as more males are pursuing their risky and status-seeking behaviors in virtual environments, not on the streets. More young men are stealing cars, racing cars, fighting, and firing weapons in first-person video games rather than on the real streets. Fewer young men are encountering each other in real life interactions, especially at social gatherings where they are likely to challenge or insult one another and end up in a physical altercation. And fewer young men are expending energy competing for the attention of women and, as a result, challenging each other. The research has revealed that males immersed in the online world and disconnected from normal life exhibit less violence in the real world than do other males.[16]

Second, compared to the non-sedated young male population of years past, today’s sedated young male population has higher levels of depression, anxiety, and loneliness. They also have lower levels of life satisfaction. As a result, these young men are at an elevated risk for mental health crises, including suicide attempts and domestic disturbances. Therefore, law enforcement officers are likely to encounter more mental health crisis and suicide calls, involving these individuals in particular.

Third, the use of drugs and alcohol to self-medicate, combined with their depressive symptoms, will likely lead to an increase in drug-related crimes. Medicated young men will likely be increasingly involved in drug crimes, such as prescription drug fraud and the purchase of illegal drugs. Their attempts at self-medication will lead to more calls involving drug overdoses, as many in law enforcement have seen over the last ten or more years.

Fourth, as sedated men are often dependent upon their families or the social welfare system for their housing, income, and (most importantly) their internet access, changes in that support structure will lead to property crime. When a parent or grandparent is no longer able or willing to support the sedated man, he is faced with the choice of either returning to engagement with the real world or turning to easier but illegal methods of support. These men need credit to stay online and keep their utilities operating, are very experienced with technology and the virtual world, and are less likely to be physically aggressive, so pursuing cash or merchandise from street thefts and burglaries is unlikely. They are more likely to engage in internet and phone scams to illegally access bank accounts and credit cards. Therefore, law enforcement officers will likely continue to see an increase in cybercrimes and phone scams, especially those targeting the elderly.   

Fifth, the sedated men problem will lead to more disturbance calls. Living dependent on one’s parents or grandparents will likely strain these relationships, especially as the elderly caregiver becomes less able or willing to support their adult offspring. These situations will likely lead to an increase in family disputes involving situations other than intimate-partner violence. For those who are dependent on the social welfare safety net, as states and the federal government tighten rules regarding the receiving and use of services such as unemployment income benefits, Social Security Disability Income (SSDI), and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, also called EBT), law enforcement can expect to see more evictions and landlord-tenant disputes, particularly involving these sedated men.

In the wake of eviction or family expulsion from the home, and in combination with the substance dependency and mental health issues discussed above, the sedated male population is likely to continually add to the problem of homelessness in America and all of the crime and disorder challenges that come with it. 

 

Conclusion

The societal impact of millions of sedated young men is not yet fully known, but one would be hard-pressed to imagine that any of the impacts will be positive. Families, neighborhoods, communities, and cities need young men who are engaged in family and civic life. Their absence is felt, particularly in impoverished communities, in ways that are difficult to accurately measure.

What we can measure is the statistical reality of their disengagement and the manner in which it is changing how we understand crime and disorder that is traditionally caused by young men. The increasing prevalence of sedated men in the young male population paired with the shrinking numbers of young men relative to the general population, means that law enforcement leaders should be preparing their officers and their citizens for a criminal landscape in the years ahead that looks very different from the past. If these trends continue, community calls to the police will be less frequently concerning violent street crime as we have come to understand it, involving young men, gangs, drugs, and illegally obtained firearms, and more frequently concerning mental health crises, barricaded subjects, and domestic disturbances involving young men and their older relatives.

What appears to be a downturn in homicides and other violent crimes in cities across the country may prove to be the beginning of a new paradigm in addressing crime and disorder in light of a new demographic reality—millions of isolated, disengaged, and sedated young men.

 

 

 

 

References

[1] KOMO NBC Channel 15 News Staff, “Violent Crime Rates Decline in Washington State, but Drug and Gun Offenses Rise by 31%.” KOMO NBC Channel 15 News, July 28, 2025. Accessed on August 1, 2025 at: https://mynbc15.com/news/nation-world/violent-crime-rates-decline-in-washington-state-but-drug-and-gun-offenses-rise-by-31-attack-assault-murder-property-theft-dui-minor-juvenile-domestic-injury; Marco Haynes, “Los Angeles Approaches Historic Low in Homicide Rate.” NBC Channel 4 News, July 9, 2025. Accessed on August 1, 2025 at: https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/los-angeles-approaches-historic-low-in-homicide-rate/3741552/; Shannon Miller, “Violent Crime Down 14% Compared to Last Year in Dallas, Police Say.” NBC Channel 5 News, July 22, 2025. Accessed August 1, 2025 at: https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/violent-crime-down-14-percent-dallas-police-say/3891333/; Alex George, “Camden Sees Historic Drop in Violent Crime Due to Community Outreach.” FOX Channel 29 News, July 11, 2025. Accessed on August 1, 2025 at: https://www.fox29.com/news/camden-sees-historic-drop-violent-crime-due-community-outreach.

[2] Costello, William, and David M. Buss. “Why Isn’t There More Incel Violence?” Adaptive Human Behavior and Physiology 9, no. 3 (2023): 252-259.

[3] Eberstadt, Nicholas. Men Without Work: Post-Pandemic Edition. Templeton Foundation Press, 2022.

[4] For just a few examples, see: Byrnes, James P., David C. Miller, and William D. Schafer. “Gender Differences in Risk Taking: A Meta-Analysis.” Psychological Bulletin 125, no. 3 (1999): 367; Turanovic, Jillian J., Michael D. Reisig, and Travis C. Pratt. “Risky Lifestyles, Low Self-Control, and Violent Victimization Across Gendered Pathways to Crime.” Journal of Quantitative Criminology 31, no. 2 (2015): 183-206.Vaske, Jamie, John Paul Wright, Danielle Boisvert, and Kevin Michael Beaver. “Gender, Genetic Risk, and Criminal Behavior.” Psychiatry Research 185, no. 3 (2011): 376-381; Wilson, Margo, and Martin Daly. “Competitiveness, Risk Taking, and Violence: The Young Male Syndrome.” Ethology and Sociobiology 6, no. 1 (1985): 59-73.

[5] See, for example: Fang, Ray Tsai, and András Tilcsik. “Prosocial Occupations, Work Autonomy, and the Origins of the Social Class Pay Gap.” Academy of Management Journal 65, no. 3 (2022): 903-929; Próchniak, Piotr. “Firefighters: Prosocial Risk Taking and Time Orientation.” Social Behavior and Personality: An International Journal 42, no. 2 (2014): 253-258; Reichert, Patrick, Matthew D. Bird, and Vanina Farber. “Gender and Entrepreneurial Propensity: Risk-Taking and Prosocial Preferences in Labor Market Entry Decisions.” Social Enterprise Journal 17, no. 1 (2021): 111-139.

[6] Stephanie Marken, “More Americans Say Small Businesses Positively Impact People’s Lives.” Gallup Organization, October 11, 2023. Accessed on August 5, 2025, at: https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/512282/americans-say-businesses-positively-impact-people-lives.aspx.

[7] Anderson, Elijah. Code of the Street: Decency, Violence, and the Moral Life of the Inner City. WW Norton & Company, 2000; Anderson, Elijah. Streetwise: Race, Class, and Change in an Urban Community. University of Chicago Press, 2013; Ilan, Jonathan. Understanding Street Culture: Poverty, Crime, Youth, and Cool. Bloomsbury Publishing, 2017; Silverman, Dan. “Street Crime and Street Culture.” International Economic Review 45, no. 3 (2004): 761-786.

 

[8] Buss, David M. “Sex Differences in Human Mate Preferences: Evolutionary Hypotheses Tested in 37 Cultures.” Behavioral and Brain Sciences 12, no. 1 (1989): 1-14; Buss, David M., and David P. Schmitt. “Sexual Strategies Theory: An Evolutionary Perspective on Human Mating.” In Interpersonal Development, pp. 297-325. Routledge, 2017. Schwarz, Sascha, and Manfred Hassebrauck. “Sex and Age Differences in Mate-Selection Preferences.” Human Nature 23, no. 4 (2012): 447-466; Searcy, William A. “The Evolutionary Effects of Mate Selection.” Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 13 (1982): 57-85.

[9] Costello, William, and David M. Buss. “Why Isn’t There More Incel Violence?” Adaptive Human Behavior and Physiology 9, no. 3 (2023): 252-259.

[10] Balakrishnan, Janarthanan, and Mark D. Griffiths. “Social Media Addiction: What is the Role of Content in YouTube?” Journal of Behavioral Addictions 6, no. 3 (2017): 364-377; Griffiths, Mark D., and Daria Kuss. “Adolescent Social Media Addiction (Revisited).” Education and Health 35, no. 3 (2017): 49-52; Longstreet, Phil, and Stoney Brooks. “Life Satisfaction: A Key to Managing Internet & Social Media Addiction.” Technology in Society 50 (2017): 73-77; Zivnuska, Suzanne, John R. Carlson, Dawn S. Carlson, Ranida B. Harris, and Kenneth J. Harris. “Social Media Addiction and Social Media Reactions: The Implications for Job Performance.” The Journal of Social Psychology 159, no. 6 (2019): 746-760.

[11] Blinka, Lukas, and Jakub Mikuška. “The Role of Social Motivation and Sociability of Gamers in Online Game Addiction.” Cyberpsychology: Journal of Psychosocial Research on Cyberspace 8, no. 2 (2014); Kowert, Rachel, and Julian A. Oldmeadow. “Playing for Social Comfort: Online Video Game Play as a Social Accommodator for the Insecurely Attached.” Computers in Human Behavior 53 (2015): 556-566; Sublette, Victoria Anne, and Barbara Mullan. “Consequences of Play: A Systematic Review of the Effects of Online Gaming.” International Journal of Mental Health and Addiction 10, no. 1 (2012): 3-23; Van Rooij, Antonius J., Gert-Jan Meerkerk, Tim M. Schoenmakers, Mark Griffiths, and Dike Van de Mheen. “Video Game Addiction and Social Responsibility.” Addiction Research & Theory 18, no. 5 (2010): 489-493.

[12] Costello, William, Vania Rolon, Andrew G. Thomas, and David P. Schmitt. “The Mating Psychology of Incels (Involuntary Celibates): Misfortunes, Misperceptions, and Misrepresentations.” Journal of Sex Research 61, no. 7 (2024): 989-1000; Litam, Stacey Diane Arañez, Megan Speciale, and Richard S. Balkin. “Sexual Attitudes and Characteristics of OnlyFans Users.” Archives of Sexual Behavior 51, no. 6 (2022): 3093-3103; Stulhofer, Aleksandar, Vesna Busko, and Ivan Landripet. “Pornography, Sexual Socialization, and Satisfaction Among Young Men.” Archives of Sexual Behavior 39, no. 1 (2010): 168-178; Yang, Xiaozhao Yousef. “Is Social Status Related to Internet Pornography Use? Evidence from the Early 2000s in the United States.” Archives of Sexual Behavior 45, no. 4 (2016): 997-1009.

[13] Costello, William, and David M. Buss. “Why Isn’t There More Incel Violence?” Adaptive Human Behavior and Physiology 9, no. 3 (2023): 252-259; Costello, William, Vania Rolon, Andrew G. Thomas, and David Schmitt. “Levels of Well-Being Among Men Who are Incel (Involuntarily Celibate).” Evolutionary Psychological Science 8, no. 4 (2022): 375-390.

[14] Eberstadt, Nicholas. Men Without Work: Post-Pandemic Edition. Templeton Foundation Press, 2022; Kost, Kathleen A. “A Man Without a Job is a Dead Man: The Meaning of Work and Welfare in the Lives of Young Men.” Journal of Sociology & Social Welfare 24 (1997): 91-110. Townsend, Nicholas. Package Deal: Marriage, Work, and Fatherhood in Men’s Lives. Temple University Press, 2010.

[15] Costello, William, Vania Rolon, Andrew G. Thomas, and David Schmitt. “Levels of Well-Being Among Men Who are Incel (Involuntarily Celibate).” Evolutionary Psychological Science 8, no. 4 (2022): 375-390; Ouyang, Zhongming, Yanzi Wang, and Hongwei Yu. “Internet Use in Young Adult Males: From the Perspective of Pursuing Well-Being.” Current Psychology 36, no. 4 (2017): 840-848; O’Malley, Roberta Liggett, and Brenna Helm. “The Role of Perceived Injustice and Need for Esteem on Incel Membership Online.” Deviant Behavior 44, no. 7 (2023): 1026-1043.

[16] Costello, William, and David M. Buss. “Why Isn’t There More Incel Violence?” Adaptive Human Behavior and Physiology 9, no. 3 (2023): 252-259; Costello, William, Vania Rolon, Andrew G. Thomas, and David Schmitt. “Levels of Well-Being Among Men Who are Incel (Involuntarily Celibate).” Evolutionary Psychological Science 8, no. 4 (2022): 375-390.

 

Authors: Matt Dolan, J.D. and Richard R. Johnson, Ph.D.

In recent weeks, a flurry of news stories have been published touting record declines in homicides in several of America’s largest cities. These news stories have claimed that in the first half of 2025, the number of homicides in Baltimore, Chicago, Los Angeles, St. Louis, and other major cities were significantly lower than for the same period (January through June) in 2024. Many of these news reports have asserted that these homicide reductions were historic and quickly sought to link these reductions to the policies of the incumbent mayors of these cities.

Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott, for example, announced that Baltimore has experienced a 22% decline in homicides, and a 19% decline in non-fatal shootings, for the first six months of 2025 as compared to the first six months of 2024. Mayor Scott attributed these declines to his public safety plan that “tackled violence as a public health problem,” and “emphasized community engagement.” The Baltimore mayor’s office claimed that the city is at its lowest homicide rate in 50 years.[1]

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson’s office said that Chicago’s homicides in the first half of 2025 represented a 32% drop from the first half of 2024 and was the lowest number since 2014. In addition to taking credit for these homicide declines, Mayor Johnson’s office also said there were 39% fewer shootings this year to date, compared to the first half of last year. Johnson asserted that, while there was more work to be done, “this is certainly an encouraging indication that our efforts…are paying dividends.”[2]

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass claimed a 20% drop in homicides in Los Angeles in the first half of the year as compared to 2024, and said that the city is on pace for its lowest homicide total in nearly 60 years. Mayor Bass attributed the declines to her “comprehensive safety strategies with community organizations, while holding people accountable.”[3] 

The city of St. Louis also reported that from January 2025 to the end of June 2025, there were fewer homicides within the city than in every year since 2014.[4]

What are we to make of these reports? Is violent crime really declining significantly in major cities across the United States? If so, what might be causing these declines? Is it the crime policies of various mayors, as has been claimed by politicians and commentators? Since each administration pursued different policies, yet all experienced similar results, these declines are not likely the result of public policies alone. This article will examine the data on reported homicides in 4 of these cities over the last twelve years to determine the long-term trend. It will then examine what might be plausible causes for any homicide reductions that are revealed.

The increase in violent crime in cities across the United States in recent years past has been well-documented.[5] So, if violent crime is now falling in cities across the country, as is being widely reported, it is important for law enforcement leaders and policy makers to work to understand why.

 

The Statistical Reality

We looked to the official Uniform Crime Reports homicide statistics for Baltimore, Chicago, Los Angeles, and St. Louis for the first six months of each year, going back to 2014. Interestingly, all of these cities except St. Louis failed to turn in data to the FBI for the year 2021. Also, the official Uniform Crime Report data publicly available from the FBI only covers crimes committed through 2023. Therefore, we had to rely on the accuracy of news articles for homicide statistics for 2024 and 2025.

Furthermore, we cannot emphasize enough how unusual it is to rely on comparisons of only the first six months of each year. It is extremely premature to declare a crime trend based on only half a year’s worth of data, especially when dealing with homicides, as homicides are (fortunately) one of the least frequently occurring categories of crimes. This is why it is so important to examine multiple whole years of homicide data. But, in light of the proclamations of elected officials and commentators on this apparent trend in recent weeks, we examined the available data as best we could.

Figure 1 below is a graph of the first half of the year homicide numbers for Chicago (population 2.66 million) and Los Angeles (population 3.82 million) from 2014 through 2025. As the graph reveals, the failure of these cities to provide crime data to the FBI for 2021 leaves an obvious gap in the pattern of homicide occurrences.

Figure 1. First Half of the Year Homicides for Chicago and Los Angeles, 2014 – 2025.

 

Nevertheless, we can see that far more homicides occur in Chicago than Los Angeles, despite Chicago having almost a third fewer people. Homicides during the first six months of each year in Chicago fluctuated inconsistently from year to year, making it particularly risky to assume the accuracy of predictions about what each successive year will bring. However, there has been a decline in homicides during the first half of the year for the years 2022 through 2025. The homicides for the first half of 2025 are 32% lower than in 2022.

As for Los Angeles, the homicide numbers appear to be stable from year to year until the gap in the data in 2021. When the data resumes in 2022, however, homicides had spiked upward by 33% from 2020. While Los Angeles shows a declining pattern from 2022 through 2025, just like Chicago, the long-term pattern suggests the homicide numbers are simply returning to the pre-2021 numbers. This graph reveals that the longer-term patterns can vary from city to city as each city faces different circumstances.

Figure 2 below is a graph of the first half of the year homicide numbers for Baltimore (population 565,239) and St. Louis (population 281,754) from 2014 through 2025. While Baltimore failed to provide crime data for 2021, St. Louis did provide data.

 

Figure 2. First Half of the Year Homicides for Baltimore and St. Louis, 2014 – 2025.

 

Like Chicago, the number of homicides during the first six months of each year in Baltimore fluctuated dramatically from year to year up to the 2021 gap in the data. When the data resumed in 2022, the homicide numbers were very elevated, but appear to have been in decline ever since. The homicides for the first half of 2025 in Baltimore are 63% lower than in 2022. As for St. Louis, the long-term trend reveals a spike in homicides beginning in 2015 that remained high until after 2020, and then began a year-over-year decline through 2025.

Therefore, the answer to our first question is yes, the number of homicides reported for the first half of the year in these four cities appears to reveal a recent decline in the number of homicides when compared to recent years. However, the steepness of this decline, and the pathway to this decline, varies significantly from city to city. Next, we consider what factors may have influenced these declines. Many elected officials and commentators have credited these cities’ mayors and their public safety initiatives for these declines, but do the facts support these claims?

Baltimore’s Mayor Scott took office in December 2020, but Baltimore did not provide any data to evaluate his first twelve months in office. However, during the first six months of his second year in office, there were 12% more homicides than the year before he took office. Chicago’s Mayor Johnson did not take office until May of 2023, after Chicago had already experienced two years of declining homicides. Los Angeles Mayor Bass assumed office in December 2022, which does correspond with a period of homicide declines in Los Angeles. But correlation does not necessarily indicate causation, and these individual mayors’ policies cannot explain the simultaneous homicide declines in many other large cities across the nation. What other factors might be at work to decrease the number of homicides in many U.S. cities?

 

Things Returning Back to Pre-Pandemic Normal?

In response to the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, many cities, counties, and states chose to release thousands of criminal offenders from prisons and jails. According to one report, more than 100,000 convicted felons were released early from state and federal prisons between March and June of 2020.[6] At the same time, many federal, county, and municipal courts drastically curtailed their operations, while jails severely restricted the use of pretrial detention.[7] As a result of these decisions, hundreds of thousands of felony offenders, including many violent offenders, were released back into communities with little risk of being locked up again for re-offending during 2020 and 2021.

Predictably, national crime rates spiked during 2020 and 2021 in most communities, but because of unknown reasons, Baltimore, Chicago, and Los Angeles failed to collect data on crimes during this crime spike period. FBI crime statistics for the law enforcement agencies that did report data for 2020, 2021, and 2022 reveal that violent crime at the national level increased by 44% from 2020 to 2022.[8] In light of the fact that many of the massive numbers of previously-incarcerated individuals committed new crimes and were re-incarcerated after 2022, it is possible that the declines we are seeing now are simply the result of homicide rates returning to pre-pandemic levels.

 

Violent Offenders Being Removed from the Community Between 2020 and 2022?

What might have happened to those hundreds of thousands of offenders released from prisons and jails who returned to reoffend in their communities? Most of the homicide victims of the 2020-2022 homicide spike bore a striking resemblance to the known offenders in these homicides, and shared similarities with the U.S. prison population.

According to the FBI National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS) data, the victims of the 2020-2022 homicides were 78% male, while 87% of the known homicide offenders for those years, and 93% of state prison inmates were male. Approximately 68% of the homicide victims were under age 40, while 79% of homicide offenders, and 69% of state prison inmates were under the age of 40. Of the 2020-2022 homicides, approximately 66% involved an interpersonal dispute between friends, acquaintances, or strangers, not a robbery or domestic violence situation.[9]

These statistics suggest that during the three-year homicide spike of 2020-2022, the individuals in the population that tended to engage in violent crime encountered one another back in their communities and engaged in lethal violence against one another. It is possible that the decline in homicides today is partly due to many of these offenders killing each other during 2020-2022, with many of the survivors of these violent encounters also being taken out of communities through incarceration.              

Additionally, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reported approximately 307,000 deaths by accidental overdoses on illegal drugs in the U.S. during 2020-2022. In 2019, the CDC only recorded 70,630 accidental overdoses on illegal drugs, 31% lower than the yearly average during 2020-2022. The majority of the drugs involved in these 2020-2022 deaths were opioids such as fentanyl and heroin, and stimulants such as methamphetamine and cocaine.[10]

The National Institute of Health (NIH) reported 313,314 deaths due to alcohol consumption and alcohol-related accidents during 2020-2022, an average of 104,438 alcohol-related deaths per year. In 2019, however, there were only 78,927 alcohol-related deaths, 24% fewer deaths than the annual average for 2020-2022.[11] The majority of those who died in accidental illegal drug overdoses, or due to alcohol consumption and alcohol-related accidents, were predominantly low-income, non-white men under the age of 40 years old, just like the homicide victims and perpetrators. Criminologists have well documented that career criminal offenders tend to live “life as a party,” frequently engaging in a party lifestyle when not working, committing crimes, or incarcerated.[12]

Therefore, it appears that thousands of young male offenders from the small segment of the population that most contributes to violent crime were removed from society through death or by incarceration as a result of living lives of crime and engaging in other high-risk activities.  

 

Demographic Shifts in the United States

Some might note, however, that young men have always been removing themselves from the population in high numbers through the inevitable outcomes of crime, high-risk drug use, and other risky behaviors. Aren’t these offenders just replaced by the next wave of risk-taking young men taking their place? Maybe in the past, but not any longer. Figure 3 below shows the U.S. fertility rate since 1970 which has been plummeting for years and is resulting in a much smaller number of young men in the U.S. population. The U.S. fertility rate (the average number of children born to a woman) has been declining in our nation since the early 1970s, due to access to birth control and the nationwide legalization of abortion. The U.S. birth rate then plummeted further since the recession of 2008.[13]

When a nation’s fertility rate falls below 2.0 (two births is called the “replacement value,” when two children “replace” their two parents in the population), the nation’s population usually shrinks. The number of children born in the U.S. has declined dramatically over the last two decades. The American children that were not born in 2008 would have been 17 years old today if they had been born. As fewer youth are being born in the U.S. each year, that means there are inevitably fewer and fewer persons alive who are statistically most likely to become potential homicide offenders or homicide victims.

 

Figure 3. U.S. Fertility Rate, 1970-2023

 

Additionally, we should consider migration patterns within the United States. In the wake of the pandemic, many large cities in the U.S. saw massive numbers of people leaving these cities. One survey found that those who moved out of major U.S. cities in 2020-2022 sought places with lower costs of living, more open spaces, lower crime, and more flexible lockdown rules.[14] Baltimore, Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York were some of the cities that experienced waves of fleeing residents.

Another study found that most of those relocating from these cities to more suburban or rural locations were under age 40–the age bracket at greatest risk of becoming a homicide victim or perpetrator.[15] In Los Angeles, the uncontrolled wildfires of February 2025 alone were estimated to have displaced between 150,000 and 200,000 persons from that city.[16] These homicide declines might be largely explained by fewer people within the city capable of becoming homicide victims or offenders due to fewer people being born and mass migration out of these cities.

Therefore, it is extremely important that we focus on crime rates – the number of homicides per capita – rather than raw numbers of homicides. For example, 20 homicides in a city of 200,000 persons is a high rate of homicides, while 20 homicides in a city of 2 million persons is a very low rate of homicides. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Baltimore was estimated to have had a population of 594,601 persons in 2019, and 565,239 in 2023.[17] Baltimore experienced a 5% population decline from 2019 to 2023. Did the population decline continue in 2024 and 2025 in cities like Baltimore? If so, we should expect the raw numbers of crimes to decline as the population declines, not the result of any policies proposed by the mayor’s office.  

 

Conclusion

We have provided several plausible explanations for why many major U.S. cities seem to be experiencing reductions in homicide numbers over the last couple of years. There could also be additional factors that we did not cover in detail here. The last ten years in the U.S. have seen a surge in anti-police movements, such as the Black Lives Matter (BLM) organization, the Defund the Police movement, and the pushes to eliminate cash bail systems, replace cops with social workers, decriminalize many drug and property crimes, and reduce incarceration rates. Many have argued that these social changes have led to “de-policing,” as some officers choose to no longer engage in proactive enforcement efforts.[18] There is also social science evidence that the de-policing that gained momentum after the 2014 protests that began in Ferguson, Missouri, corresponded with increases in violent and property crime in the years that followed.[19] It is possible that police officers have increased arrest rates, and courts have increased prosecutions and incarcerations in the face of public outcry as the harmful consequences of these movements were felt in their communities—and that these factors have impacted violent crime rates in many cities.

It is most likely that everything we have discussed here has been working in conjunction to reduce homicides and other violent crimes in the major cities which we analyzed, as well as many other cities across the country. There are indications that something is leading to fewer homicides and other violent crimes in numerous cities across the country—despite the fact that these cities have different elected officials, different police leadership, and different policing strategies on the ground. 

It is by no means clear that the apparent decrease in violent crime in different cities is solely caused by a variety of different public safety initiatives and policing strategies that all happen to work in different ways and for different reasons. It seems much more plausible that by examining what these cities have in common, we can better understand the apparent trend.

In our next article on this topic, we will be doing just that—looking at social changes within the nation which have led to an aging population and changes in young male behavior, resulting in a demographic landscape with less violent street crime, but a surge in other public order issues handled by the police.

 

 

 

References

[1] Marc H. Morial, “Baltimore Success Story: Mayor Scott’s Community-Based Approach Achieves Historic Drop in Violent Crime.” National Urban League, July 23, 2025. Accessed on July 23, 2025 at: https://nul.org/news/baltimore-success-story-mayor-scotts-community-based-approach-achieves-historic-drop-violent

[2] ABC Channel 7 Eyewitness News, “Mayor Johnson Talks About Declining Crime Rates in Chicago,” ABC Channel 7 Eyewitness News, July 29, 2025. Accessed August 9, 2025 at: https://abc7chicago.com/post/chicago-crime-mayor-brandon-johnson-talks-declining-rates-july/17351800/; Patricia Hurtado and Miranda Davis, “Manhattan, Chicago Murder Rates Drop in 2025, Officials Say.” Bloomberg, July 15, 2025. Accessed on July 23, 2025 at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-15/manhattan-chicago-murder-rates-plunge-in-2025-officials-say

[3] ABC Channel 7 Eyewitness News, “Bass Touts Steep Decrease in LA’s Homicide Rate; City on Pace for Lowest total in 60 years.” ABC Channel 7 Eyewitness News, July 10, 2025. Accessed July 23, 2025 at: https://abc7.com/post/mayor-karen-bass-touts-steep-decrease-las-homicide-rate-city-pace-lowest-total-60-years/17054806/

[4] Lauren Brennecke, “St. Louis Homicide Rate Falls, Lowest Mid-Year Rate Since 2014.” Spectrum News St. Louis, August 6, 2025. Accessed on August 7, 2025, at: https://spectrumlocalnews.com/mo/st-louis/news/2025/08/06/stl-homicide-rates-fall

[5] John Gramlich, “What We Know About the Increase in U.S. Murders in 2020,” Pew Research Center, October 27, 2021. Access on August 2, 2025, at: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/10/27/what-we-know-about-the-increase-in-u-s-murders-in-2020/; Ryan Lucas, “FBI Data Shows an Unprecedented Spike in Murders Nationwide in 2020.” National Public Radio News, September 27, 2021. Accessed on August 2, 2025, at: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/27/1040904770/fbi-data-murder-increase-2020

[6] Damini Sharma, Weihua Li, Denise Lavoie, and Claudia Lauer, Prison Populations Drop by 100,000 During Pandemic (New York: The Marshall Project, July 2020). Accessed on July 24, 2025 at: https://www.themarshallproject.org/2020/07/16/prison-populations-drop-by-100-000-during-pandemic

[7] Weihua Li, Beth Schwartzapfel, Michael R. Sisak, and Camille Fassett, Jail Populations Creep Back Up After COVID-19: Judges, Prosecutors and Sheriffs in Many States Sent People Home instead of to Jail Last Year, but New Data Suggests the Change is Not Lasting (New York: The Marshall Project, June 2021). Accessed on July 24, 2025, at: https://www.themarshallproject.org/2021/06/07/jail-populations-creep-back-up-after-covid-19

[8] Weihua Li and Jamiles Lartey, New Data Shows Violent Crime Is Up And Also Down (The Marshall Project, November 2023). Accessed on July 24, 2025, at: https://www.themarshallproject.org/2023/11/03/violent-crime-property-data-nibrs-ucr-fbi-2022

[9] The data for these homicide victim and offender statistics came from the FBI’s National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS) located here: https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend, and the prison inmate data came from Leah Wang, Wendy Sawyer, Tiana Herring, and Emily Widra, Beyond the Count: A Deep Dive into State Prison Populations (Northampton, MA: Prison Policy Initiative, April 2022).

[10] Matthew F. Garnett and Arialdi M. Miniño, Drug Overdose Deaths in the United States, 2003–2023, NCHS Data Brief No. 522 (Atlanta, GA: Centers for Disease Control, December 2024).

[11] National Institute of Health, National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, Alcohol-Related Emergencies and Deaths in the United States (Washington, DC: National Institute of Health, November 2024).

[12] Richard B. Felson, D. Wayne Osgood, Patrick R. Cundiff, and Craig Wiernik, “Life in the fast lane: Drugs, hedonistic lifestyles, and economic crime.” Crime & Delinquency 65, no. 9 (2019): 1292-1318; Neal Shover and David Honaker. “The Socially Bounded Decision Making of Persistent Property Offenders,” In Michael L. Birzer and Paul Cromwell (eds.), In Their Own Words: Criminals on Crime 7th Edition (New York: Oxford University Press, 2016), 15-23.

[13] Kearney, Melissa, Levine, Phillip, & Pardue, Luke (2022, February 15). “The Mystery of the Declining U.S. Birth Rate.” Econofacts. Accessed on 07/22/2025 from: https://econofact.org/the-mystery-of-the-declining-u-s-birth-rate

[14] Kiri Blakeley, “Top 10 Cities People Are Leaving, and What They All Have in Common.” Realtor.com, October 17, 2024. Accessed on July 24, 2025, at: https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/cities-people-are-leaving-what-they-have-in-common/

[15] Paul Davidson, “Why Young People Continue to Flee Big Cities Even as Pandemic has Faded.” USA TODAY, October 15, 2024. Accessed on July 24, 2025, at: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/10/14/young-adults-leaving-cities-for-rural/75616277007/

[16] Alicia Victoria Lozano, “Their Homes Remain Standing, but These L.A. Wildfire Victims Still Might Lose Them.” NBC News, March 3, 2025. Accessed on July 24, 2025, at: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-fire-victims-are-limbo-wait-insurance-payouts-rcna193922

[17] U.S. Census Bureau, Baltimore (city), Maryland. Accessed on July 24, 2025, at: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/baltimorecitymaryland/INC110223  

[18] Heather Mac Donald, The War on Cops: How the New Attack on Law and Order Makes Everyone Less Safe (New York: Encounter Books, 2017).

[19] Zachary A. Powell, “De-policing, Police Stops, and Crime.” Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice 17 (2023): paac070.

 

The years following George Floyd’s in-custody death in 2020 have been bloody ones for the people of Minneapolis—particularly those living in low-income communities that were already experiencing the bulk of the city’s violent crime long before 2020.[1] The Minneapolis Police Department (MPD) has struggled to recover from a mass exodus of officers in the wake of Floyd’s death and the public outcry that followed. Staffing levels in 2025 are nearly 350 officers shy of where they were in 2020.[2] The public’s lack of trust in the MPD was exhibited by a public referendum in 2021 proposing to dismantle the department, which was narrowly rejected by only 56% of voters.[3] And a damning Department of Justice (DOJ) report released in June of 2023 was in no way disputed by the now second-term mayor Jacob Frey, who publicly stated that the report’s findings “are aligned with what communities of color have been telling us now for many years—in fact generations. Since May of 2020, we’ve been facing this reality on a daily basis.”[4]

Mayor Frey’s response in absolute agreement with the DOJ’s findings of organizational failure in 2023 is telling. Long before the in-custody death of George Floyd on May 25 of 2020, nearly 5 years ago, the signs of leadership failures in hiring, training, supervision, and discipline were evident—even from the outside looking in, let alone from the vantage point of the mayor’s office.

It would be tragic if law enforcement leaders across the country were not willing and able to learn from what happened 5 years ago in Minneapolis, how it happened, and why. Years of past leadership failures in the MPD were as apparent as they were avoidable. Other law enforcement agencies can and should learn from these mistakes.

Applicants and new hires who showed early “red flags” in their backgrounds or poor on-the-job conduct were nonetheless allowed to pass their probationary periods and become permanent employees. Cops who engaged in blatant misconduct were sometimes fired but later reinstated due to internal affairs failures.[5] The process of choosing field training officers (FTOs) often put many of the same problem officers who engaged in misconduct in charge of training the MPD’s newest recruits. And policy violations continued year after year, without effective course correction or termination.

So, if police leaders and elected officials in Minneapolis were not focused on these fundamentals of police operations, what, exactly, were they focused on instead?

 

If Everything is a Priority, Then Nothing is a Priority

In the years leading up to George Floyd’s death, the MPD failed to demonstrate a commitment to training and practices in the fundamentals of police operations. Instead, the MPD leadership, and the elected leaders in the City of Minneapolis, focused on an assortment of policy and training priorities that seemed to capture the cultural moment and draw praise from outside groups—many of the same outside groups that would soon call for the dismantling of the MPD altogether. Many of these policy and training priorities had questionable utility for good policing and seem to have been pursued at the expense of the types of training and policies that every law enforcement agency needs.

The MPD was an early adopter of mandatory implicit bias training in 2014. MPD supervisors completed the training first, followed closely by patrol officers in 2015, and implicit bias training became a part of academy training and “refresher” trainings in 2015.[6] For many years, racial and gender diversity in recruiting and hiring was consistently touted as a top priority for MPD leadership, in an effort to make the ranks of the MPD reflect the racial and gender diversity of the city.[7]

In 2016, the MPD created a new transgender and gender non-conformity policy, requiring officers to address LGBTQIA+ individuals using their preferred pronouns.[8] This policy was touted by the MPD’s first female and first openly gay police chief, who had served as chief since 2012.[9] By 2019, the MPD created a six-member unit comprised of “civilian community navigator positions” including one dedicated to the LGBTQIA+ community.[10]

The MPD announced a broad rollout of body-worn cameras in 2016, and then-Chief Janee Harteau announced that “the officers are absolutely using their cameras.”[11] This rollout was accompanied by an agency-wide policy identifying the multitude of situations in which cameras were mandated to be activated, along with a warning that officers who failed to comply with the policy would “be subject to discipline, up to and including termination.”[12]

And in the months just prior to George Floyd’s death, the MPD mandated training in “dog de-escalation” techniques for all officers in the wake of incidents involving MPD officers shooting aggressive dogs.[13]

This article is not intended as a blanket condemnation of these training topics, policies, and initiatives. Each one deserves its own discussion for every law enforcement agency. But priorities matter, and the failure to prioritize sound hiring, training, supervision, and discipline by MPD leaders and elected city officials, while prioritizing nearly every new wave of training and policy alternatives, is possibly the organizational and leadership failure to be examined 5 years after the death of George Floyd.

 

Getting Back to Basics

It is dangerously easy to fall into the trap of chasing all the latest headline-grabbing training topics, while allowing the back-to-basics training to suffer, as the Minneapolis case painfully illustrates. This is particularly true when a very vocal few seem to drown out the many—with the latter group being much more concerned with commonsense quality-of-life issues than anything else.

In the early months of 2020, the MPD was publicly struggling to finally address a critical area of mismanagement which had been present for years—officer exhaustion in a management system where hours worked were simply not tracked. While publicly denying that there was any connection between officer fatigue and the poor decisions made  by MPD officers in recent years, the city had recently settled for $20 Million in a deadly shooting case involving Officer Mohamed Noor, who had worked an off-duty shift for his secondary employer before reporting for work that day for the MPD.[14] When discussing the department’s failure to account for hours worked in relation to agency policies limiting off-duty hours, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey concluded, “If we can’t track hours worked, that’s not good.”[15]

This $20 Million settlement stemmed from the deadly MPD shooting of Justine Damond on July 15, 2017.[16] Damond called 911 to report what she believed to be a sexual assault in progress nearby. A two-man squad car responded to her call and approached her residence from the rear alley. Damond, the complainant witness, a middle-aged woman dressed in pajamas, approached the driver’s side door to speak with the officers when she was inexplicably shot and killed by the officer in the passenger seat—Officer Mohammed Noor.[17] The deadly shooting of the unarmed complainant resulted in a $20 million civil settlement and a five-year prison term for Noor.[18] A relatively recent hire by the MPD, Noor’s field training officers had documented critical performance issues exhibited by Noor, but somehow that did not prevent him from completing his probationary term and becoming a full-fledged member of the MPD.[19] Then-Mayor Betsy Hodges publicly praised the newly hired Noor in 2016, stating that:

Officer Noor has been assigned to the 5th Precinct, where his arrival has been highly celebrated, particularly by the Somali community in and around Karmel Mall.[20]

In the years preceding George Floyd’s death, the leadership in the MPD demonstrated basic deficiencies in internal affairs operations, first-line supervision, and other fundamentals of personnel management in a law enforcement agency. Instead of focusing on correcting these deficiencies, in the immediate aftermath of George Floyd’s death, leadership in the MPD and the City of Minneapolis publicly blamed arbitrators, who, they claimed, prevented bad cops from being fired without later being reinstated.[21]

By the end of 2020, the MPD’s own failures in conducting internal affairs investigations were becoming clear to anyone examining the cases of arbitrators overturning MPD’s disciplinary decisions. These internal affairs failures were so significant that, on December 29 of 2020, Mayor Frey and then-Chief Medaria Arradondo, who had previously led the Internal Affairs Unit, announced major changes. Frey publicly acknowledged that the MPD’s accountability failures were of their own making. He announced that their Internal Affairs Unit investigators would begin working closely with city attorneys to ensure that internal investigations were conducted thoroughly and lawfully in order to minimize the risk of legitimate discipline being overturned at arbitration. This decision came following years of internal failures to impose discipline in a fair, consistent, and timely manner, which led to many cases of police misconduct going unpunished.[22]

Frey publicly lamented the state of internal affairs operations and the resulting reinstatements of officers who had engaged in misconduct, but who were ultimately reinstated due to MPD failures in conducting fair, timely, and lawful administrative investigations. Frey stated at the time, “We, as a city, cannot allow a file languishing on an overworked investigator’s desk to boost the odds of a bad cop being put back on the street.”[23]

To summarize, in the years leading up to the death of George Floyd, MPD priorities included implicit bias training, policies on the use of gender pronouns in the field, diversifying the ranks, and dog de-escalation tactics. MPD priorities did not include effectively addressing officer fatigue, properly vetting new hires in field training for their ability to safely do the job, or competently conducting internal affairs investigations into allegations of serious police misconduct.

 

It’s Not What You Preach, It’s What You Tolerate

In March of 2020, if one had judged a police department by the sweeping statements made at press conferences, one would have been tempted to view the MPD as one of the most progressive, forward-thinking departments in the country. But, in between press conferences, accountability was undoubtedly lacking.

As mentioned previously, the MPD announced a broad rollout of body-worn cameras in 2016, at which time then-Chief Janee Harteau announced that “the officers are absolutely using their cameras.”[24] But when Justine Damond was inexplicably shot and killed by MPD Officer Noor in 2017, neither he nor his partner had activated their body-worn cameras. When other officers arrived on the scene and found out what had happened, they selectively turned their cameras off at various times during the investigation.[25] In 2019, it was announced that officers’ compliance with the body-worn camera policy was improving, although 70 officers still required mandatory training to address non-compliance. Mayor Frey indicated that, moving forward, discipline could result from non-compliance. Approximately 3 years after the public proclamation by the MPD police chief that the cameras were on and rolling, the Minneapolis mayor had to publicly acknowledge that, far too often, the body-worn cameras were not being used as had been promised.

In spite of the implicit bias training sessions and public proclamations on diversity, the death of George Floyd must ultimately be viewed as a failure of fundamental police ethics. For all the focus within the MPD leadership on racial disparities, racial discrimination, and racial bias, it must be noted that George Floyd was not determined to be the victim of a hate crime. Minnesota’s Attorney General, who was intimately involved in the criminal prosecution of Derek Chauvin, indicated in an interview with 60 Minutes in 2021, that Officer Chauvin was not charged with a hate crime due to lack of evidence.[26]

When asked by the interviewer if the in-custody death of George Floyd was a hate crime, Attorney General Ellison responded:

We don’t have evidence that Derek Chauvin factored in George Floyd’s race as he did what he did….In order for us to stop and pay serious attention to this case and be outraged by it, it’s not necessary that Derek Chauvin had a specific racial intent to harm George Floyd.[27]

This fact, possibly more than any other, should inform the way that police leaders look at training and policy priorities in 2025. It is a fact that points to the importance of back-to-basics policy development and training that focuses on words, actions, and outcomes rather than unknowable, invisible biases and other concerns that are often the subject of agency policies and training.

From vetting new hires to holding veteran officers accountable, from training priorities to internal affairs operations—the consistent failures of MPD and elected officials in the years prior to George Floyd’s death show an agency that was far more dysfunctional than most law enforcement agencies in the United States. And that dysfunction appears to have ultimately been rooted in a lack of commonsense priorities.

 

 

About the Author

Matt Dolan, J.D.

Matt Dolan is a licensed attorney who specializes in training and advising public safety agencies in matters of legal liability, risk management and ethical leadership.  His training focuses on helping agency leaders create ethically and legally sound policies and procedures as a proactive means of minimizing liability and maximizing agency effectiveness.  

A member of a law enforcement family dating back three generations, he serves as both Director and Public Safety Instructor with Dolan Consulting Group.

In December of 2024, he published his first book, Police Liability: A Guide for Law Enforcement Leaders of All Ranks.

His training courses include Internal Affairs Investigations: Legal Liability and Best Practices, Supervisor Liability for Law Enforcement, Recruiting and Hiring for Law Enforcement, Confronting the Toxic Officer, Performance Evaluations for Public Safety and Confronting Bias in Law Enforcement.

 

Disclaimer: This article is not intended to constitute legal advice on a specific case.  The information herein is presented for informational purposes only.  Individual legal cases should be referred to proper legal counsel.

 

 

 

 

References

[1] Lou Raguse, “Minneapolis Had More Homicides in 2024 than 2023”, KARE 11 News, January 1, 2025. Accessed March 5, 2025 at: https://www.kare11.com/article/news/local/minneapolis-had-more-homicides-in-2024-than-2023/89-c047909f-aa1a-4a81-ace7-97a13f6cff83#:~:text=In%20Minneapolis%2C%20there%20were%2048,to%20Minneapolis%20Police%20crime%20data.

[2] Jason Rantala, “Minneapolis Police Boost Numbers for the First Time in 5 Years,” CBS WCCO News, January 12, 2025. Accessed March 5 at: https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/minneapolis-police-boost-numbers-5-years/

[3] Martin Kaste, “Minneapolis Voters Reject a Measure to Replace the City’s Police Department,” NPR News, November 3, 2021. Accessed March 5, 2025 at:  https://www.npr.org/2021/11/02/1051617581/minneapolis-police-vote

[4] KMSP Fox 9 News, “Minneapolis Police Investigation: DOJ Found It Violated People’s Constitutional Rights,” KMSP Fox 9 News, June 16, 2023. Accessed March 6 at: https://www.fox9.com/news/minneapolis-police-department-doj-investigation-results

[5] Brandt Williams, “Minneapolis Officer Ordered Back on the Job after Firing for Punching Handcuffed Man,” Minnesota Public Radio News, December 2, 2019. Accessed on March 6, 2025 at: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/12/02/minneapolis-officer-ordered-back-on-the-job-after-firing-for-punching-handcuffed-man

[6] Nicole Norfleet, “Minneapolis Police Training Aims to Help Officers Recognize Biases,” Minnesota Star Tribune, June 24, 2015. Accessed on March 8, 2025 at: https://www.startribune.com/minneapolis-police-training-aims-to-help-officers-recognize-biases/309674441

[7] KMSP FOX 9 News, “Graduating Minneapolis Police Officers Reflect on Diversity,” KMSP FOX 9 News, November 1, 2017. Accessed on March 6, 2025 at: https://www.fox9.com/news/graduating-minneapolis-police-officers-reflect-on-diversity; Libor Jany, “With Few Women in Top Spots, Minneapolis Police Face a Challenge Diversifying Force: Chief “Committed to Doing More” to Diversify Ranks,” Minnesota Star Tribune, April 1, 2018. Accessed on March 6, 2025 at: https://www.startribune.com/with-few-women-in-top-spots-minneapolis-police-face-a-challenge-diversifying-force/478499673; Brandt Williams, “Minneapolis Police Make An Effort To Hire More Minority Officers,” National Public Radio Morning Edition, September 3, 2014. Accessed on March 6, 2025 at: https://www.npr.org/2014/09/03/345308385/minneapolis-pd-makes-an-effort-to-hire-more-minority-officers

[8] Libor Jany, “Minneapolis Police Announce New Transgender, Gender Nonconformity Policy: The New Rules Will Require Officers to Address Transgender People Using Their Preferred Names and Pronouns,” Minnesota Star Tribune, September 22, 2016. Accessed on March 6, 2025 at: https://www.startribune.com/mpls-police-announce-new-transgender-gender-nonconformity-policy/394319441

[9] Brandt Williams, “Janee Harteau Sworn In as Minneapolis Police Chief,” Minnesota Public Radio News, December 4, 2012. Accessed on March 6, 2025 at: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2012/12/04/janee-harteau-sworn-in-as-mpls-police-chief

[10] Libor Jany, “New Minneapolis Police Liaison Works to Build Bridges to LGBTQ Community,” Minnesota Star Tribune, June 21, 2019. Accessed on March 6, 2025 at: https://www.startribune.com/new-minneapolis-police-liaison-works-to-build-bridges-to-lgbtq-community/511659802

[11] Barndt Williams, “Minneapolis Police Say Body Cameras Showing Immediate Benefits,” Minnesota Public Radio News, November 2, 2016. Accessed on March 6, 2025 at: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2016/11/02/minneapolis-police-say-body-cameras-showing-immediate-benefits 

[12] Barndt Williams, “Minneapolis Police Say Body Cameras Showing Immediate Benefits,” Minnesota Public Radio News, November 2, 2016. Accessed on March 6, 2025 at: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2016/11/02/minneapolis-police-say-body-cameras-showing-immediate-benefits

[13] CBS WCCO News, “Minneapolis Police Officers Take Training to Better Handle Aggressive Dogs,” CBS WCCO News, January 22, 2020. Accessed February 16, 2024 at: https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/minneapolis-police-required-to-take-dog-sensitivity-training/.

[14] Matt Sepic, “Task Force to Look at Minneapolis Cops’ Off-Duty Work,” Minnesota Public Radio News, February 6, 2020. Accessed April 7, 2024 at: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/02/06/task-force-to-look-at-minneapolis-cops-offduty-work.

[15] Leah Beno, “Minneapolis Task Force to Reexamine MPD Off-Duty Employment Policies,” KMSP Fox 9 News, February 5, 2020. Accessed April 8, 2024 at: https://www.fox9.com/news/minneapolis-task-force-to-reexamine-mpd-off-duty-employment-policies.

[16] Amy Forliti, “Minneapolis to Pay $20 Million to Family of 911 Caller Slain by Cop,” Associated Press, May 3, 2019. Accessed on March 8, 2025 at: https://apnews.com/article/6362cd8e99c74816863622f7daf9ebf1

[17] MPR News, “Video: Confusion, Disbelief as MPD Officers Rush to Ruszczyk Shooting,” MPR News, May 24, 2019. Accessed on March 8 at:

[18] Associated Press, “Ex-Minneapolis Police Officer Mohamed Noor Released from Prison in Fatal Shooting of Justine Ruszczyk Damond,” Associated Press, June 27, 2022. Accessed on March 8, 2025 at: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna35527

[19] KMSP Fox 9 News, “Prosecutors: Mohamed Noor’s Work History Shows ‘Reckless Disregard for Human Life,’” KMSP Fox 9 News, September 6, 2018. Accessed on March 8, 2025 at: https://www.fox9.com/news/prosecutors-mohamed-noors-work-history-shows-reckless-disregard-for-human-life.amp

[20] David Chanen and Faiza Mahamud, “What We Know About Mohamed Noor, Minneapolis Officer who Fatally Shot Justine Damond,” Minnesota Star Tribune, July 18, 2017. Accessed on March 8, 2025 at: https://www.startribune.com/what-we-know-about-mohamed-noor-minneapolis-officer-who-fatally-shot-justine-damond/435018163

[21] KMSP Fox 9 News Staff, “Minnesota Mayors Call On State Lawmakers to Overhaul Police Arbitration Process,’” KMSP Fox 9 News, June 18, 2020. Accessed on March 8, 2025 at: https://www.fox9.com/news/minnesota-mayors-call-on-state-lawmakers-to-overhaul-police-arbitration-process.amp

[22] Jeremiah Jaconsen, “Minneapolis Police Disciplinary Changes.” Minneapolis KARE 11 News, December 29, 2020. Accessed February 20, 2024 at: https://www.kare11.com/article/news/local/minneapolis-policeannounce-disciplinary-process-changes/89-7eb47ff3-8125-4c3c-839f-dc0df7bced92.

[23] MPR News Staff, “Minneapolis Announces Changes to Police Misconduct Investigations,” MPR News, December 29, 2020. Accessed on March 8, 2025 at: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/12/29/minneapolis-announces-changes-to-police-misconduct-investigations

[24] Barndt Williams, “Minneapolis Police Say Body Cameras Showing Immediate Benefits,” Minnesota Public Radio News, November 2, 2016. Accessed on March 6, 2025 at: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2016/11/02/minneapolis-police-say-body-cameras-showing-immediate-benefits

[25] Probable Cause and Information Charging Document, State of Minnesota vs. Mohamed Mohamed Noor. State of Minnesota, County of Hennepin, March 20, 2018. Accessed on March 6, 2025 at: https://web.archive.org/web/20180925104317/https://www.hennepinattorney.org/-/media/Attorney/NEWS/2018/Noor-Mohamed-cplt.pdf

[26] Scott Pelley, “60 Minutes Interviews the Prosecutors of Derek Chauvin,” CBS News, April 26, 2021. Accessed on March 8, 2025 at: https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/derek-chauvin-prosecutors-george-floyd-death-60-minutes-2021-04-25/

[27] Ibid.

 

Internal affairs investigators, police leaders, and veteran officers can attest to the fact that certain types of police misconduct tend to appear again and again over time. These types of misconduct damage careers, compromise the public trust, and lead to substantial legal liability. Even with all of the distinct details that may be involved in a particular case, there are 4 common pitfalls that lead to investigations, terminations, and convictions.  These 4 pitfalls are not unique to law enforcement, or to the 21^st Century.

These 4 pitfalls were identified long before the existence of American policing. Saint Thomas Aquinas (1225-1274), whose feast day was celebrated last month by the Catholic Church, is widely recognized as one of the greatest theologians in the history of Christianity. Whether or not you adhere to Christianity, it is important to note that he was also a philosopher, widely recognized in Western culture by more than just religious believers. A suitable summary of Aquinas’ work and contributions to the studies of theology, civics, and ethics is not something that can be provided in a short article. You probably are not reading this for that purpose anyway. What is important to know, for our purposes, is that 800 years after his death, Aquinas’ observations about human beings and their common paths to self-destruction are as relevant today as they were then.

The 4 pitfalls that Aquinas identified involve the excessive pursuit of wealth, pleasure, power, and status.[i] Aquinas’ 4 pitfalls were more recently summarized by Bishop Robert Barron:

One of the most fundamental problems in the spiritual order is that we sense within ourselves the hunger for God, but we attempt to satisfy it with some[thing] that is less than God. Thomas Aquinas said that the four typical substitutes for God are wealth, pleasure, power, and honor.[ii]

Many readers may be uncomfortable with the notion that honor, even in excess, could be a bad thing, as this term is so often tied to a law enforcement officer’s integrity or honesty. A plausible alternative for honor may be prestige, status, or reputation. As the legendary UCLA basketball coach John Wooden said, “Be more concerned with your character than with your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what people think you are.”[iii]

A law enforcement leader does not have to share Aquinas’ Christian faith to see that the replacement of the police officer’s mission undertaken by police officers—that of preventing crime and disorder and serving the public—in favor of something less than that mission is a proven path to liability and public trust disasters. Today’s news headlines, internal affairs files, and court dockets pertaining to police misconduct exemplify these 4 pitfalls.

The excessive pursuit of wealth is possibly the simplest pitfall to spot. “Double-dipping” scandals involving financial fraud, overtime fraud, and other forms of theft by officers are all clearly rooted in an excessive pursuit of wealth that blinds them to the oath that they took when they became police officers. We must also consider officers who pursue a promotion, not out of a desire to take a position of formal leadership in the department, but rather simply and solely out of a desire to increase their salaries. The reality of officers’ need to provide financially for their families is undeniable. But so is the damage done to a department when officers work off-duty or overtime to the point of exhaustion, or leadership roles are filled by individuals who are completely uninterested in the vital task of supervision but are, instead, focused only on a pay increase.

The excessive pursuit of pleasure is all too easy to find in the headlines of alleged sexual misconduct involving members of the public or sexual harassment involving members of the department. The agency mission has clearly been supplanted when sexual misconduct is prioritized over public service in the field. Public complaints of an agency being understaffed and overworked tend to fall on deaf ears with the public when it is revealed that officers found time for sex on duty or rampant sexual harassment.

The excessive pursuit of power is found in the various instances of “badge heavy” behavior, sometimes classified as “uniform courage.” In these instances, the authority of a law enforcement officer is abused in a way that diminishes the people an officer encounters and, they seem to believe, elevates them to a position of superiority. Furthermore, cases of sexual misconduct, in which vulnerable individuals are victimized, inevitably involve this pursuit of power as well as pleasure.

The excessive pursuit of status can be seen in cases of fabricated arrests made to win agency accolades, or in response to inappropriate pressure from supervisors to “hit numbers” in terms of tickets written or arrests made without regard for quality as well as quantity. But other kinds of misconduct also fall into this category—such as supervisors and executives ignoring underlying misconduct problems to protect their own standing and advancement. In other words, some police leaders are more concerned with the potential fallout associated with identifying problems—as that fallout pertains to their own reputation and position—than they are concerned with the actual underlying issue of misconduct.

For internal affairs operations, it would seem to make common sense to first recognize the 4 pitfalls, as they serve as a comprehensive summary of countless IA cases, viral videos, and lawsuits. Furthermore, all agency leaders should be cognizant of these 4 pitfalls in the hiring and training process. An applicant or new hire who demonstrates that he or she was attracted to law enforcement because of an interest in wealth, pleasure, power, or status should be scrutinized with an eye to the long-term ramifications of ignoring these traits.

The defining feature that these four pursuits have in common, as evidenced by every history book in the library, by every file of an internal affairs division “frequent flier,” and by our own experiences, is that there is never enough of the wealth, pleasure, power, or status when we chase these things. In making this critical point, Aquinas cited the Gospel story of Jesus and the woman at the well, in which Jesus speaks to the unquenchable nature of these kind of thirsts, “Everyone who drinks this water will be thirsty again.”[iv]

There is never enough money to quench the thirst of the deputy who engages in overtime fraud. There is never enough sexual gratification for the trooper who engages in sex on duty. There is never enough personal satisfaction for the officer who abuses police powers by verbally or physically abusing citizens. There is never enough recognition for the sergeant who prioritizes accolades and prestigious assignments over the fundamentals of supervision.

Agency leaders should recognize that the 4 pitfalls are all derived from a failure to focus on public service, a mission that is greater than an individual, and the honorable motivation  of well-intentioned men and women entering a career in law enforcement in the first place.

Lastly, and without making any excuses for individual officers who violate the public trust in the pursuit of wealth, pleasure, power, and status, it is imperative that agency leaders do their best to place guard rails and safeguards in place to limit the likelihood that officers will fall into one or more of the 4 pitfalls.

If the agency does not regularly scrutinize overtime and secondary employment work to ensure that fraud is not occurring, the temptation to abuse the system for financial gain becomes greater.

If allegations of sexual misconduct or sexual harassment, on or off duty, are not investigated fully, the temptation to engage in these acts becomes greater.

If complaints ranging from officer demeanor to constitutional violations are not investigated promptly and thoroughly—regardless of the apparent trustworthiness of the complainant based on their past convictions, mental health disorders, substance abuse issues, etc.—the temptation to abuse police power becomes greater.

And if supervisors are not compelled to regularly “inspect what they expect” to identify problems early, the temptation to actively ignore or even cover-up wrongdoing in order to protect their own standing and reputation becomes greater.

Internal affairs investigators, supervisors, and law enforcement executives are in the business of leading human beings. So, the recognition of timeless and common human failings should be at the forefront of their minds in order to prevent, identify, and address the excessive pursuit of wealth, pleasure, power, and status by members of their agency.

These 4 pitfalls are every bit as present in law enforcement today as they were in the people who Saint Thomas Aquinas observed 800 years ago. Recognizing these pitfalls should guide agency leaders as they seek to improve agency operations, maintain the public trust, and do all that they can to protect their people from themselves.

 

 

 

About the Author

Matt Dolan, J.D.

Matt Dolan is a licensed attorney who specializes in training and advising public safety agencies in matters of legal liability, risk management, and ethical leadership.  His training focuses on helping agency leaders create ethically and legally sound policies and procedures as a proactive means of minimizing liability and maximizing agency effectiveness.  

 

A member of a law enforcement family dating back three generations, he serves as both Director and an instructor with Dolan Consulting Group. He has trained thousands of law enforcement professionals over the last decade.

In December of 2024, he published his first book, Police Liability: A Guide for Law Enforcement Leaders of All Ranks.

His training courses include Internal Affairs Investigations: Legal Liability and Best Practices, Supervisor Liability for Law Enforcement, Recruiting and Hiring for Law Enforcement, Confronting the Toxic Officer, Performance Evaluations for Public Safety, and Confronting Bias in Law Enforcement.

 

Disclaimer: This article is not intended to constitute legal advice on a specific case.  The information herein is presented for informational purposes only.  Individual legal cases should be referred to proper legal counsel.

 

 

 

References

[i] Thomas Aquinas, Summa Theologiae, First Part of the Second Part, Question 2

[ii] Bishop Robert Barron, Catholicism: A Journey to the Heart of the Faith (New York, NY: Random House / Image, 2014), 43.

[iii] Pat Williams and Jim Denney, Coach Wooden: The 7 Principles That Shaped His Life and Will Change Yours (Revell, 2011).

[iv] The Holy Bible, John 4:13

 

 

When I entered law enforcement as a deputy in 1980, I had just completed three years as a scholarship athlete, playing Division One basketball for Western Carolina University. I was in the best shape of my life. But within a few years of police work, I had put on a significant amount of weight, and I would struggle with poor physical fitness for much of my 32-year career.

So, when I speak about the importance of physical fitness for the men and women of law enforcement, I do not speak as the model of fitness without empathy for physical fitness struggles. Rather, I speak as someone who can attest, based on my own personal experience, to the challenges associated with a poor diet, lack of physical exercise, and the poor physical fitness that follows.

I was blessed to have an amazing 32-year career in this profession that I love, and I am proud of my service as a deputy, officer, and chief of police. But in retrospect, I know, without a doubt, that I would have benefited immensely from prioritizing my physical health, both professionally and personally. As a retired chief who now travels the country as a training consultant, my much-improved state of physical fitness has been vital to my ability to maintain my busy pace at the age of 67 years old. I wish I had been in this kind of physical shape during all my years on the job.

It is from this perspective that I am so troubled to see law enforcement agencies across the country lowering physical fitness standards or even eliminating them all together, knowing what we do about the impact of law enforcement work on the physical and mental well-being of officers. Law enforcement leaders should be doing just the opposite of the current trend—instead of lowering standards, they should be raising standards for physical fitness and incentivizing cops to stay in shape throughout their careers.

Let me be clear, this is not a time to target and punish honorable, competent and hard-working officers in the profession today who are not as physically fit as they should be—or would like to be. But it is precisely the time for leaders to stop ignoring what is painfully obvious: physical health allows our officers to be more effective on the clock and improves their quality of life off the clock. 

I am very open to the idea that sit-ups, push-ups, and other traditional metrics of fitness may not measure the exact types of physical abilities required in a law enforcement career. I don’t recall having to do pushups or sit-ups while working the street. But I do recall having to scale backyard fences and wrestle suspects into a pair of handcuffs. I do recall having to run up flights of stairs and help carry arrestees. Perhaps we need to replace the older models of physical fitness testing with newer, scenario-based measurements of fitness, or tests that better represent the reality of what is required on the job. What we cannot do is simply lower standards or eliminate tests altogether.

If someone had told me at the beginning of my law enforcement career in 1980 that I was required to maintain a specific physical fitness standard to keep my job as a cop, I would have undoubtedly prioritized fitness. I cannot accept the notion that we do not have men and women entering the profession today who share that same level of commitment. The vast majority of officers avoid certain behaviors, people, or places that might put their careers and pensions at risk. I am certain that if maintaining a reasonable fitness standard was also a requirement, they would do that too. 

Throughout their careers, in every reasonable way, we should be incentivizing and assisting our officers to maintain physical fitness. Doing so will allow them to thrive as professionals, spouses, and parents. It will cut down on work-related injuries and disability claims. While there has been a much-needed increase in the willingness on the part of police leaders to make mental health resources available to officers in an effort to maintain emotional well-being, there is no question that mental health and physical health are often related. So why, then, would so many law enforcement leaders allow physical fitness standards to drop while, at the same time, recognizing that officers’ mental health is an area in which improvement is desperately needed?

I cannot think of a better New Year’s resolution for law enforcement leaders in 2025 than to start moving toward (1) enhancing the physical fitness requirements for new hires, and (2) instituting initiatives to encourage the great men and women of law enforcement who we have already hired to become and stay physically healthy throughout this noble but challenging career.

 

 

 

About the Author

Harry P. Dolan is a 32-year police veteran who served as a Chief of Police since 1987. As one of the nation’s most experienced police chiefs, he brings 25 years of public safety executive experience to Dolan Consulting Group. He retired in October 2012 as Chief of Police of the Raleigh (N.C.) Police Department, an agency comprised of nearly 900 employees in America’s 42nd largest city.

Chief Dolan began his law enforcement career in 1980 as a deputy sheriff in Asheville, North Carolina and served there until early 1982, when he joined the Raleigh Police Department, where he served as a patrol officer. In 1987, he was appointed Chief of Police for the N.C. Department of Human Resources Police Department, located in Black Mountain. He served as Chief of Police in Lumberton, N.C. from 1992 until 1998, when he became Chief of Police of the Grand Rapids, Michigan Police Department. He served in that capacity for nearly ten years before becoming Chief of the Raleigh Police Department in September 2007. As Chief, he raised the bar at every organization and left each in a better position to both achieve and sustain success.

Harry Dolan has lectured throughout the United States and has trained thousands of public safety professionals in the fields of Leadership & Management, Communications Skills, and Community Policing. Past participants have consistently described Chief Dolan’s presentations as career changing, characterized by his sense of humor and unique ability to maintain participants’ interest throughout his training sessions. Chief Dolan’s demonstrated ability to connect with his clientele and deliver insightful instruction all with uncompromising principles will be of tremendous value in the private sector.

Chief Dolan’s passion to achieve service-excellence is a driving force behind Dolan Consulting Group. He is a graduate of Western Carolina University and holds a Master’s Degree in Organizational Leadership and Management from the University of North Carolina at Pembroke.

His training courses include Verbal De-escalation Training: Surviving Verbal Conflict®, Verbal De-escalation Train The Trainer Program: Surviving Verbal Conflict®, Community Policing Training, Taking the Lead: Courageous Leadership for Today’s Public Safety, and Street Sergeant®: Evidence-Based First-Line Supervision Training.

 

In the face of widespread staffing shortages, there is an inexcusable, but understandable, temptation for law enforcement leaders to lower hiring standards and skip steps in the background investigation and field training phases in an effort to get “warm bodies” onto their departments. As a result, it is painfully easy to find headlines from 2024 that illustrate the costs associated with a breakdown in the proper vetting of newly hired law enforcement officers.

In March of 2024, a Henderson, Nevada police recruit was arrested for drunk driving within 36 hours of graduating from the police academy.[i] In May, a New Orleans police recruit still in the academy was arrested for aggravated assault with a firearm.[ii] In June, a New York State Police recruit was arrested for assaulting a training instructor in the academy and attempting to take the trainer’s firearm.[iii] In July, a newly hired Kokomo, Indiana officer, still on probationary status, was arrested and charged with sexual misconduct with a minor.[iv] And in December, local news outlets reported that the Houston Police Department had hired a former Harris County detention officer in April of 2024 in spite of pending investigations into allegations of excessive use of force during his two year tenure as a jailer.[v] One local outlet reported, “ABC13 asked HPD if they knew about the past incidents when he was hired, and they said that was part of the investigation into what he disclosed on his application.”[vi]

These stories point to misconduct—on-duty and off-duty—that occurred so early in each officer’s career that burnout seemed to be an implausible explanation. Common sense dictates that, if an individual cannot manage to get through the academy and field training without making headlines for misconduct, something was likely missed in the hiring process.

The issue of negligent hiring is fundamental to every aspect of law enforcement operations—both in the near future and in the long term. It is in the hiring phase, with a particular emphasis on background investigations and field training, that law enforcement leaders have a unique opportunity to minimize the liability that comes to bear throughout the course of an officer’s career.

The 2024 stories referenced above come on the heels of a Department of Justice (DOJ) report in October of 2023 urging law enforcement leaders to “modernize eligibility requirements.”[vii] These “modernization” recommendations included removing barriers to entry such as physical fitness, past drug use, ability to pass a written test, past criminal offenses and much else.[viii] In other words, the DOJ report formally touted what too many agencies have adopted informally—lowering hiring standards to fill open officer positions.  

While there are undoubtedly agencies that need to reevaluate some eligibility requirements—such as those pertaining to maximum age limits, college credit hours attained, or other requirements which seem to bear little or no relationship to an applicant’s character, competence, or integrity—the eligibility items highlighted by the DOJ report imply that now is the time to lower standards, hire “warm bodies,” and deal with the fallout later. Law enforcement leaders should, instead, follow their ethical compasses and apply common sense. They should look to their own experiences within their agencies, and to the history of modern American policing, and subsequently reject this short-sighted and unethical philosophy of rushed hiring and lowered standards.

At this moment, the law enforcement profession, and the citizens who depend on it, need agency leaders to meet the ethical challenge of resisting the temptation to hire unqualified applicants. In the long run, these applicants have the potential to inflict tremendous damage on agencies, the profession, and the communities that these agencies serve. 

The last thing that officers and citizens need now is unqualified new hires in law enforcement who will ultimately bring disrepute to the profession, rather than further the mission to protect and serve. By learning from the mistakes of the past, being wary of common hiring pitfalls and understanding the long-term impact of negligent hiring practices, agency leaders can uphold their integrity and that of the profession without contributing to the detriment of their agencies and communities.

 

You Cannot Outsource Negligent Hiring Liability

In recent years, many states have attempted to assist local law enforcement agencies in identifying officers with past misconduct issues in an effort to prevent bad actors from moving from agency to agency and being hired without proper regard for their past actions. The legislation passed in these states includes certification and de-certification processes, increased funding and resources for state-wide accreditation bodies, as well as mandates for local agencies to better communicate with one another in service of more thorough background investigations.

In 2017, the State of Michigan passed a law intended to help end the problem of “gypsy cops”, who bounce from agency to agency engaging in a pattern of misconduct, by mandating thorough background investigations on the part of law enforcement agencies conducting lateral hiring of certified officers. The legislation also required transparent communication on the part of officers’ current or former agencies of employment (1) with the state accreditation body at the time of separation, and (2) with other law enforcement agencies when one of their officers or former officers sought a law enforcement position elsewhere in the state. But this legislation has by no means eliminated negligent hiring cases in which local police leaders fail to conduct thorough, back-to-basics background investigations that go beyond state certification.[ix] In fact, in November, the Detroit Police Department self-reported that 30 of their active officers were not properly licensed with the State of Michigan and had to be placed on administrative duty.[x]

In one particularly disturbing 2023 case out of Michigan, a public safety director, when asked by a local reporter if the agency failed to conduct a thorough background investigation when hiring an officer with a history of very public on-duty misconduct with a nearby agency, responded: “No. Not at all. We’re not the licensing authority. The State of Michigan is and we go by what they say.”[xi]

Illinois is another state that has passed legislation in recent years aimed at preventing the hiring of officers with checkered histories.[xii] But, much like the situation in Michigan, the reality remains that local law enforcement agencies are still ultimately responsible for engaging in legally and ethically defensible hiring practices.

This local responsibility in hiring officers, and the consequences of failures in legally and ethically defensible hiring practices, were brought to national attention following the fatal shooting of Sonya Massey in 2024. Massey, a mentally ill, unarmed woman, was shot and killed by a Sangamon County Sheriff’s deputy who was hired in spite of past misconduct issues in his personal life and as a law enforcement officer at other Illinois agencies. The fatal shooting occurred less than 4 miles from the Illinois State Capitol where the aforementioned legislation was passed.[xiii]

The now former Sheriff of Sangamon County, who eventually stepped down in the wake of Massey’s death and subsequent evidence of the deputy’s checkered past in law enforcement, defended the deputy’s hiring in a local news interview as follows:

 

“There is absolutely nothing in his background that would decertify him from working in law enforcement,” Campbell said. “The State of Illinois, the State Standards Board had certified him six times over and over and over again to continue working with law enforcement. There was nothing that we could have predicted.”[xiv]

 

The financial cost of negligent hiring practices is evident in cases brought by plaintiffs like Yareni Rios-Gonzalez in Colorado. Rios-Gonzalez was handcuffed and left in a squad car parked on train tracks when a train struck and severely injured her. The officer in whose squad car she was placed had recently been hired by his agency despite being labeled incompetent at his previous law enforcement agency. A demotion had been recommended by the previous agency, in light of an internal affairs investigation and concern expressed by fellow officers that he showed disregard for his own safety and the safety of others.[xv]

In June of 2024, Rios-Gonzalez reached a settlement in the amount of $8.5 million, receiving equal payments from the two cities whose officers were involved in her arrest. The cities, whose police leaders had hired and deployed the officers on the scene – not the State of Colorado, its law enforcement accrediting body, or any other outside entity tasked with assisting local police leaders in their hiring decisions – were liable for the incident. [xvi] 

Hopefully, state accreditation bodies will continually improve in assisting individual agencies in the hiring process—particularly as it pertains to hiring laterals from within that state. However, it is clear that when negligent hiring practices lead to the deployment of individuals unfit for the job, the fallout from their subsequent negligence or misconduct falls first and foremost on the agencies that hired them, the agency name which is displayed on the badges that they wear, and not the state body that has certified them.

 

If We Are Hiring Applicants Without Leaving the Office—

We Are Doing Something Wrong

 

Technological advancements have undoubtedly made it possible for background investigators to disqualify applicants with increased efficiency and decreased time commitment. Many dishonest statements on a personal history statement can be readily identified by checking various databases online. Social media activity can be checked for blatantly disqualifying conduct without the necessity of an investigator leaving the office. But these advancements tend only to assist investigators in disqualifying candidates, rather than approving them for hire. These tools are generally limited to identifying automatic disqualifiers and the kind of commonsense disqualifiers that are obvious to anyone with internet access.

The real work for background investigators, which must be done before approving a candidate, requires an out-of-office-experience. Technological advancements have not replaced methods including, but not limited to, a home visit, neighborhood canvass, and interviews with past supervisors, FTOs, and firearms instructors.

Law enforcement leaders should be prepared to defend their hiring practices by describing their efforts, outside of minimal in-office background checks, to identify possible character, integrity, and competence issues revealed by past conduct. This is particularly true in light of the financial and public trust costs associated with bad hires, when compared to the costs associated with a thorough background investigation. 

 

About the Author

Matt Dolan, J.D.

Matt Dolan is a licensed attorney who specializes in training and advising public safety agencies in matters of legal liability, risk management and ethical leadership.  His training focuses on helping agency leaders create ethically and legally sound policies and procedures as a proactive means of minimizing liability and maximizing agency effectiveness.  

A member of a law enforcement family dating back three generations, he serves as both Director and Public Safety Instructor with Dolan Consulting Group. 

His training courses include Internal Affairs Investigations: Legal Liability and Best Practices, Supervisor Liability for Law Enforcement, Recruiting and Hiring for Law Enforcement, Confronting the Toxic Officer, Performance Evaluations for Public Safety and Confronting Bias in Law Enforcement.

 

Disclaimer: This article is not intended to constitute legal advice on a specific case.  The information herein is presented for informational purposes only.  Individual legal cases should be referred to proper legal counsel.

 

 

 

References
______________________________

[i] C.C. McCandless, “Report: Probationary Henderson Police Officer ‘Swerving All Over the Road’ at Time of DUI Arrest,” FOX 5 KVVU-TV News, March 26, 2024. Accessed December 23, 2024 at: https://www.fox5vegas.com/2024/03/26/report-probationary-henderson-police-officer-swerving-all-over-road-time-dui-arrest/

[ii] Keli Freeman, “NOPD Recruit Arrested, Accused of Assault,” WDSU News, May 15, 2024. Accessed December 23, 2024 at: https://www.wdsu.com/article/nopd-recruit-arrested-for-assault/60791531

[iii] Jon Moss, “’Erratic’ NY State Police Recruit Tries to Grab Training Officer’s Gun at Cazenovia Academy, Troopers Say,” Syracuse.com, July 30, 2024. Accessed December 23, 2024 at: https://www.syracuse.com/news/2024/07/erratic-ny-state-police-recruit-tries-to-grab-training-officers-gun-at-cazenovia-academy-troopers-say.html

[iv] Gregg Montgomery, “Former Cop Charged with Sexual Misconduct with Juvenile,” Syracuse.com, July 23, 2024. Accessed December 23, 2024 at: https://www.wishtv.com/news/crime-watch-8/former-cop-charged-with-sexual-misconduct-with-juvenile/

[v] Mycah Hatfield, “Investigation into How HPD Hired Ex-Detention Officer at Center of Several Investigations Continues,” KTRK-TV News, December 16, 2024. Accessed December 23, 2024 at: https://abc13.com/post/ex-harris-county-detention-officer-deven-ortiz-was-allowed-resign-despite-several-investigations/15664981/

[vi] Ibid.

[vii] Bureau of Justice Assistance and Office of Community Oriented Policing Services, Recruitment and Retention for the Modern Law Enforcement Agency: Revised (Washington, DC: Office of Community Oriented Policing Services,

2023).

[viii] BJA and COPS, Recruitment and Retention for the Modern Law Enforcement Agency, 4.

[ix] Kevin Deitz, “Bad Officers Let Go Due to Misconduct Moving Easily to New Departments,” WDIV-TV Click On Detroit News, June 27, 2017. Accessed February 17, 2024 at: https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/2017/06/27/bad-officers-let-go-due-to-misconduct-moving-easily-to-new-departments-sheriff-says/.

[x] Ross Jones, “DPD Pulls 30 Officers Off the Street Over Inactive, Lapsed Law Enforcement Licenses,” WXYZ News, November 21, 2024. Accessed December 23, 2024 at: https://www.wxyz.com/news/local-news/investigations/dpd-pulls-30-officers-off-the-street-over-inactive-lapsed-law-enforcement-licenses#google_vignette

[xi] Ross Jones, “State Reviews How Officer Joined Eastpointe Police While Facing Firing in Detroit,” WXYZ News, May 17, 2023. Accessed December 23, 2024 at: https://www.wxyz.com/news/local-news/investigations/state-reviews-how-officer-joined-eastpointe-police-while-facing-firing-in-detroit

[xii] NBC Chicago, “Here’s What to Know About Illinois’ SAFE-T Act and the NEW Changes Coming,” NBC Chicago News, December 2, 2024. Accessed December 23, 2024 at: https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/heres-what-to-know-about-illinois-safe-t-act-and-the-new-changes-coming/3011535/

[xiii] Sangamon County Sheriff’s Office Press Release, “Illinois State Police Announce Investigation into Officer Involved Shooting Continues,” Sangamon County Sheriff’s Office, July 10, 2024: Accessed on December 30, 2024 at: https://sangamonil.gov/departments/s-z/sheriff/sonya-massey-information#:~:text=On%20July%206%2C%202024%20at,deceased%20at%20an%20area%20hospital.

[xiv] Danny Connolly, “Sheriff Campbell Planning Policy Changes After Deputy Shooting of Sonya Massey,” WCIA News, August 1, 2024. Accessed December 23, 2024 at: https://www.wcia.com/news/sheriff-campbell-planning-policy-changes-after-deputy-shooting-of-sonya-massey/

[xv] Brian Maas, “Platteville Police Officer Parked on Train Tracks Called ‘Incompetent’ by Fellow Officers, Demotion Recommended at Previous Department,” KCNC News, October 27, 2022. Accessed February 17, 2024 at: https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/platteville-police-officer-parked-train-tracks-called-incompetent-fellow-officers-demotion-recommended-sgt-pablo-vazquez/.

[xvi] Praveena Somasundaram, “Woman Handcuffed in Police Car Hit by Freight Train Reaches $8.5M Settlement,” Washington Post, June 5, 2024. Accessed June 29, 2024 at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/06/05/colorado-police-car-train-crash/.

 

 

November, 2024

In the summer of 2018, we published an article entitled The Public’s Confidence in the Police Might Be Better Than You Think that revealed two things. First, while there is always year-to-year fluctuation in public support for the police as news events sway public opinion, the overall rate of support for the police has remained fairly consistent, somewhere between 50% and 60%, for many decades. Second, compared to other social institutions—public education, congress, the presidency, the supreme court, or the news media—support for the police has been much higher for quite some time, and remains higher.

We published that article more than six years ago, before the civil unrest and George Floyd protests of the early 2020s. As we approach the midpoint of the decade, how is the law enforcement profession doing in the eyes of the American public?

Just as we did in our previous article, we rely on Gallup Poll data to address this question. The Gallup Poll conducts online and phone surveys of a random sample of roughly 2,000 persons in the United States every two weeks, selecting a different sample of 2,000 people each two-week period.       

The graph in Figure 1 below shows the 35-year trend in Gallup Poll data on public confidence in the local police from 1990 through the first half of 2024. This graph demonstrates the percentage of Americans surveyed by the Gallup Organization who indicated that they had “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in their local police, year by year. As one can see, when massive and sensational news coverage focuses on a case of alleged police misconduct or corruption, public confidence in the police declines for a couple of years before rebounding. When the nation begins to remember why it needs the police, such as after mass police layoffs or when violent protests erupt, public confidence rises again. The data reveal that 2024 has seen a strong rebound in public confidence in their local police. 

Figure 1. Gallup Poll Data on Public Confidence in the Police (1990-2024)

Source: Dolan Consulting Group LLC with Gallup data

What is most interesting about this 2024 rebound in public confidence in the local police is the demographic makeup of people whose attitudes have improved. According to Gallup, those who have historically expressed the highest confidence in the local police have been political conservatives, persons over the age of 55, and Whites. A Gallup study compared the 2023 to the 2024 data and revealed that the recent increases in public confidence in the local police have occurred most among persons aged 18-34 (a 59% increase), persons of color (a 42% increase), and political independents (a 32% increase).[1]

One plausible explanation for this demographic breakdown in support for the police is found in examining who is impacted most by crime, and who is most reliant on the help of local police. Crime in the United States disproportionately impacts young adult men in communities of color–demographics that correspond with the greatest surges in support for local police.[2] In other words, those members of the public with the greatest confidence in their local police are found in the demographic categories most likely to be victims of crime.[3]       

While those of us who believe in the vital mission of law enforcement officers would like to see these public trust numbers go even higher, Americans have an inherent mistrust of all government institutions, which inevitably impacts their trust in the police. Numerous surveys that have compared American attitudes with those of other Western democracies, such as Great Britain, France, Germany, Spain, and Japan, consistently reveal that Americans have the greatest sense of cynicism toward government institutions.[4]

So how does public confidence in law enforcement stack up against public confidence in other government institutions? Law enforcement in the U.S. is overwhelmingly a local government function, with 90% of law enforcement officers employed at the municipal or county level.[5] The only other local government institution consistently included in Gallup Poll public confidence surveys has been public education. So how does public confidence in law enforcement compare to public confidence in public education since 1994?

Figure 2 compares the trend in public confidence in the police, with public confidence in public education, from 1990 through the first half of 2024. As this graph reveals, public confidence in public education has had year-to-year fluctuations that somewhat mirror public confidence in the local police. However, public confidence in public education has consistently been far below that of local law enforcement.

Figure 2. Gallup Poll Data on Public Confidence in Police and Public Education (1990-2024)

Source: Dolan Consulting Group LLC with Gallup data

Since the early 1990s, public education has struggled to reach the 40% confidence mark. In the wake of the pandemic, public confidence in public education plummeted below 30%. Even at its lowest points, public confidence in local police has been almost 15 percentage points higher than public confidence in public education. This is particularly striking when we note that local law enforcement agencies are routinely impacted by police misconduct that occurs hundreds or thousands of miles away, while this is rarely, if ever, true of local schools.

What about other government institutions? Public education and local law enforcement are the only local government institutions that the Gallup Organization tracks with its public confidence surveys. It does, however, track several federal government institutions including the Congress, the President, and the U.S. Supreme Court. How does public confidence in the police compare to public confidence in these three pillars of our national government?

Figure 3 below reveals the levels of public confidence in the police alongside the levels of public confidence in Congress, the President, and the Supreme Court. As this graph reveals, since 1990, public confidence in law enforcement has remained much higher than public confidence in the three pillars of the federal government. Even at its worst, public confidence in the police has been almost 20 percentage points higher than public confidence in the Supreme Court or the President at their best. In the first half of 2024, public confidence in the local police was 43 percentage points higher than public confidence in Congress! One would think this finding would merit some national news attention.

Figure 3. Gallup Poll Public Confidence in Police and Federal Government (1990-2024)

Source: Dolan Consulting Group LLC with Gallup data

Of course, the law enforcement profession should continue to work hard to improve its image among the American public. Nevertheless, compared to other government institutions at the local and national level, it appears that the law enforcement profession is doing well in terms of overall public confidence.

But for countless members of law enforcement, it doesn’t seem like the public confidence in the police is high. Negative media coverage of the police is undoubtedly a factor in this perception among officers. This is ironic, in light of the fact that the American public’s confidence in the news media is substantially lower than its confidence in the police.

Our final graph in Figure 4 compares the Gallup Poll data on public confidence in the police, with Gallup Poll data on public confidence in the television news media, newspapers, and in the mass news media in general. Television news media refers to all news outlets that began as a television station, either on antenna broadcast or cable television. This includes the news branches of ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, CNN, MSNBC, Uniden, Telemundo, RT, Al-Jazeera, and the like. The newspaper category refers to newspapers in either print or online format. The final category refers to all news media in general, whether distributed via print, television, radio, podcast, social media, or online. Data in this last category has only been available since 1997.

Figure 4. Gallup Poll Public Confidence in Police and News Media (1990-2024)     

Source: Dolan Consulting Group LLC with Gallup data

Since the mid-1990s, the American public has had greater confidence in local law enforcement than in any form of news media. Note that this is not a measure of readership or viewership. Of course, with the expansion of the internet there has been declining readership for print newspapers and viewership of television news broadcasts. But this is a survey of whether Americans trust these institutions to do their jobs and do them competently. Trust in newspapers was well below 50% before the 1990s began, and television news plummeted to the level of newspapers by the end of the 1990s. Confidence in both of these news sources has continued to decline over the last two-and-a-half decades. In the wake of the pandemic and the 2020 election, public confidence in television news fell below 20%, and public confidence in newspapers fell to 11%.

Most people would consider it a crisis if only about 1 in 10 people in a democracy trusted their free press. As of the first half of 2024, public confidence in the local police was more than 30 percentage points higher than confidence in television news, and almost 40 percentage points higher than confidence in newspapers. The birth of more independent, purely online news sources has contributed to the higher confidence ratings for the general mass news media.[6] Nevertheless, even this category remains in decline and lags behind the local police by 20 percentage points. It may well be time for the news media to take a long hard look at its own practices, and its own public confidence crisis, before spending quite so much time and effort decrying the public’s supposed lack of trust in the law enforcement profession.

In summary, public confidence in the police has remained fairly stable over the last 35 years, mostly fluctuating between 50% and 60% from year to year. While it is vital that police leaders continually work to improve public trust in law enforcement, confidence in the police has remained much higher than public confidence in most other government institutions, including public education, Congress, the President, and the Supreme Court. Finally, for almost four decades, public confidence in all news media sources has been declining and is significantly lower than the level of public confidence in law enforcement.

For law enforcement officers in the field, this data indicates that (1) there is a great deal of public trust to be protected through the diligent work in which officers engage on a daily basis in the communities that they protect and serve, and (2) officers should be very wary of letting institutions that lack public trust themselves to define their work and their profession.

References  

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[1] Brenan, M. (2024, July 15). U.S. Confidence in Institutions Mostly Flat, but Police Up: Average Confidence in Institutions Remains Historically Low, at 28%. Gallup Organization. Accessed at: https://news.gallup.com/poll/647303/confidence-institutions-mostly-flat-police.aspx

[2] Seifert, D., Andrea Lambe, Sven Anders, Klaus Pueschel, and A. Heinemann. (2009). Quantitative Analysis of Victim Demographics and Injury Characteristics at a Metropolitan Medico-Legal Center. Forensic Science International 188, (1-3): 46-51; Varline, Jayden (2024). Crime Incidents and Victim Demographics: An Examination of Reporting Behaviours. Journal of Victimology and Victim Justice: 25166069241245774.

[3] Ibid.

[4] Mauk, D., & Oakland, J. (2008). American Civilization: An Introduction. New York, Routledge.

[5] Reaves, B. A. (2011). Census of State and Local Law Enforcement Agencies, 2008. Washington, DC: Bureau of Justice Statistics.

[6] Brenan, M. (2024, October 14). Americans’ Trust in Media Remains at Trend Low. Accessed at: https://news.gallup.com/poll/651977/americans-trust-media-remains-trend-low.aspx